TTF Prices Hold Advance

European natural gas futures held their recent gains at around €42 per MWh on Wednesday, as prospects for a second round of US-Iran peace talks appeared uncertain, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining choked. Reports indicated that Vice President JD Vance, who was expected to lead US negotiators if discussions proceeded, canceled a planned trip to Pakistan after Iran said no final decision had been made on whether to attend. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, saying Washington would give Tehran more time to present a proposal aimed at ending the conflict. Still, supply risks remain elevated as Hormuz stayed closed to shipping. Iran said it will not reopen the key waterway while the US maintains restrictions on vessels traveling to and from Tehran. The continued closure has severely disrupted LNG exports from the Persian Gulf, cutting roughly one-fifth of global supply.

European natural gas futures rose more than 5% to around €42.3 per MWh on Tuesday, extending a 3.9% gain in the previous session, as markets focused on potential US Iran talks ahead of a fragile ceasefire deadline. Iran has yet to confirm participation in negotiations in Pakistan, with key disagreements unresolved, including access to the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already triggered a global energy crisis that could worsen if fighting intensifies. President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance is ready to attend talks but warned the US will not rush a deal and could resume military action if needed. The near closure of Hormuz has severely disrupted LNG flows, cutting roughly a fifth of global supply. Shipping remains largely halted after renewed attacks, with several Qatari LNG tankers unable to pass, leaving exports from the region effectively stalled since late February.

European natural gas futures fell 2% to below €40 per MWh on Tuesday, erasing part of the gains from the prior session as traders looked ahead to a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran. Iran is reportedly preparing to send a delegation after previously signaling reluctance to participate. However, uncertainty persists as President Trump said he is unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday, and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal is reached. Traffic through the strait was halted again over the weekend as tensions escalated, with ships coming under fire and Iran warning that vessels attempting to pass through the waterway could be targeted. Several LNG tankers from Qatar were reported to have approached the strait in recent days but were either forced to turn back or remained idle. Since the war began in late February, no LNG exports have left the region, disrupting around 20% of global LNG supply.