Oil Extends Decline on Diplomacy Hopes

Crude oil dropped to around $98 per barrel on Monday, declining for the fourth straight session, pressured by hopes that increased diplomatic efforts could help end the Middle East conflict and restore energy flows from the region. President Donald Trump said he would “probably” be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week. Trump may also meet with other Persian Gulf leaders, while he is scheduled to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani urged Gulf states to cooperate in restoring stability across the region, noting that messages were being exchanged between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper said oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks had reached their highest level in six months.

Crude oil prices tumbled below $100 a barrel on Friday, erasing gains after a volatile session and falling for a third consecutive session. Markets expect the closure of Saudi Arabia’s key pipeline to have a smaller impact on supplies than initially feared. Satellite imagery suggests Saudi Arabia moved 2.8 million bpd through the Strait of Hormuz over the past six days, compared with just 700,000 bpd in August. Saudi Arabia has reportedly sold as many as 60 million barrels of crude from the Persian Gulf port of Ras Tanura for September and October loadings outside the strait through ship-to-ship transfers. Reports that Aramco expects to restore half of the pipeline’s daily flows also eased supply concerns. Still, only four commodity vessels were detected moving through Hormuz on Thursday. Volumes from Hormuz are being picked up mostly by refiners in China and South Korea. China exported 6.01 million tons of refined fuels in August, up 12.7% yearly. Oil prices fell 0.5% on the week.

Crude oil prices pared earlier losses on Friday, trading around $102.2 a barrel as markets weighed disruptions to Saudi supply. Satellite imagery and industry sources indicated that three pumping stations serving Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West Pipeline were damaged in last week’s attack, one more than previously assessed, while the repair timeline remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen exchanged fresh strikes across their border on Thursday, while civilians fled by boat across the Red Sea as fighting spread. Saudi Aramco has also informed at least two European refining customers that they will receive no crude next month following the attack on the key pipeline to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, China’s refined oil product exports rose 12.7% year on year in August, with jet fuel exports reaching a record high. Further easing of export controls in September could allow Chinese refiners to benefit from stronger overseas margins. Oil is up for the third week.