Oil Rises on Middle East Risks

Crude oil was above $81 a barrel on Friday, gaining nearly 5% this week as the US increased economic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would impose unprecedented economic measures while maintaining its naval blockade of Iranian ports, with further announcements expected next week. The International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall in 2026 in five years. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have yet to reach an agreement on reopening Hormuz, despite earlier optimism that a deal was close. US officials said American forces are increasing their ability to escort vessels through the strait, although shipping remains risky, with some tankers switching off transponders. In the Red Sea, Iran-backed Houthi militants also targeted Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. Meanwhile, additional Middle Eastern crude is expected to reach the US, offering some relief to low inventories.

Crude oil climbed toward $83 per barrel on Friday, recovering losses from the previous session as talks to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked, keeping investors alert to the risk of further escalation. Vessels passing through the vital waterway continue to face persistent threats, although crude is still moving out of the Persian Gulf, with some tankers transiting while their transponders are switched off. The US also claims that up to 9 million barrels of oil per day is currently passing through the waterway. On the demand front, the IEA lowered its global oil demand outlook this week, warning that prolonged conflict and elevated prices are increasingly weighing on consumption. However, the group expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4%, this year, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East threaten to push the global oil market deeper into deficit.

Crude oil traded near $81 per barrel on Friday after declining in the previous session, as investors are on a wait-and-see mode while monitoring diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the ongoing impasse, crude continues to flow out of the Persian Gulf, with some tankers sailing with their transponders switched off, although vessels navigating Hormuz remain exposed to persistent threats. The US also claims that as much as 9 million barrels of oil per day is currently transiting the waterway, while the capacity of US forces to escort tankers continues to expand. On the demand side, the IEA cut its global oil demand outlook this week, warning that prolonged conflict and elevated prices are increasingly weighing on consumption. OPEC also lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision.