Oil Gains as Mideast Disruptions Persist

WTI crude futures climbed above $96 per barrel on Monday, recouping losses from the previous session as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid stalled US–Iran peace talks. US President Donald Trump has instructed negotiators to suspend discussions, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran will not engage in “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.” The Iran war has now entered its ninth week, triggering what the IEA has described as the biggest energy supply shock on record, while intensifying inflationary pressures and weighing on the global growth outlook. The ongoing US naval blockade continues to constrain Iranian crude exports and stands as a key barrier to any diplomatic progress. Analysts note that even if the strait reopens, it could take months for oil flows to normalize, leaving supplies constrained and sustaining upward pressure on global energy markets.

Crude oil is set to rise again when markets reopen after the weekend, after easing below $95 a barrel on Friday as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded once more. Iran’s foreign minister left Pakistan on Sunday without meeting US officials, following President Trump’s order to halt negotiations. WTI surged 13% last week, its biggest weekly gain since early March, as the key shipping route remains largely closed. The ongoing U.S. naval blockade continues to restrict Iranian crude exports and remains a major obstacle to progress. Analysts say that even if the strait reopens, oil flows could take months to normalize, keeping supplies tight and pressure on global energy markets.

WTI crude oil futures eased to $94.7 per barrel on Friday, snapping a four-day winning streak, after the White House said it would send envoys to Pakistan, where Iranian officials are also expected, raising tentative hopes that stalled US-Iran talks could resume and eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran struck a cautious tone, with reports suggesting no formal talks are currently scheduled during Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit. The prospect of diplomacy reduced some of the geopolitical premium built into prices earlier in the week. Still, WTI added 13% during the week, the most since early March, as the key shipping route stays largely closed. The ongoing US naval blockade continues to restrict Iranian crude exports and remains a major obstacle to progress. Analysts note that even if the strait reopens, oil flows could take months to normalize, keeping supply tight and maintaining pressure on global energy markets.