Oil Surges Past $100 on Ceasefire Doubts

WTI crude futures extended gains on Thursday, rising more than 8% to trade above $100, partially reversing a nearly 16% plunge in the previous session, its steepest single-day drop since 2020. Investor concerns over the fragility of the ceasefire intensified, as both the US and Iran accused each other of violating the agreement. Ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon also threatened to undermine the deal, with Iranian officials insisting that Lebanon is covered under the ceasefire terms. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with Tehran reportedly requiring military approval for vessel passage. In the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, only one oil products tanker transited the strait, according to Reuters. The near shutdown of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global oil and gas flows, has triggered one of the most severe disruptions in energy markets in recent years.

WTI crude futures jumped more than 3% toward $98 per barrel on Thursday, recovering part of the prior session’s losses as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised doubts about the durability of a fragile Middle East ceasefire, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed. Iranian media reported that oil tanker traffic through the strait had been suspended following the attacks, amid disputes between Tehran and the American-Israeli side over whether the truce extends to Lebanon. A senior Iranian official also stated that three provisions of the ceasefire agreement have already been breached. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said there are indications the strait may begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend. The near shutdown of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global crude and gas flows, has triggered the most severe disruption in oil markets.

WTI crude oil futures tumbled more than 15% to around $95 per barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump postponed his threat to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks, describing the move as part of a “double-sided ceasefire” dependent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US had received a 10-point proposal from Tehran that he called a workable basis for negotiations, with the delay aimed at allowing time to finalize a potential agreement. Iran has agreed to reopen the strait temporarily if hostilities pause, with transit coordinated through its armed forces, while Israel is also reported to have accepted the arrangement. The near-closure of the vital waterway, through which about 20% of global oil flows, has roiled energy markets and heightened risks of rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, a drone strike hit Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline, a key route to the Red Sea that has helped bypass disruptions in the Gulf.