Oil Climbs on Ceasefire Uncertainty

Crude oil held steady at around $86 per barrel on Thursday following significant volatility earlier in the week, as the US and Iran remain deadlocked in negotiations while avoiding further escalation. A senior Iranian security official stated that the country would not surrender “a single atom” of its enriched nuclear material, rejecting one of Washington’s key conditions for peace talks. Tehran has also reiterated that the US must lift its sanctions and end the naval blockade before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. Elsewhere, Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted refineries accounting for approximately 30% of Russia’s total oil-processing capacity since late October. Despite these developments, the US oil benchmark remains nearly 20% below its October peak, as crude supply flows from the Middle East continue to recover. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that crude output surged by 26% in October, marking one of its strongest monthly production levels in recent years.

Crude oil trimmed gains to settle near $86.5 on Wednesday after touching $88 earlier, recovering from a 10-week low amid persistent Middle East tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly moved from his Washington home to a military base for safety amid growing Iranian threats. Reports say US officials have recently seen Iran’s plots against American targets reach a more advanced stage and that Bessent’s leading role in the US-Iran war has made him a top target. Iranian officials denied negotiations are underway. Security chief Mohsen Rezaei said claims that talks were continuing were aimed at “easing economic pressures and reducing oil prices.” Separately, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly said military action against Iran may not be necessary if economic sanctions and Washington’s naval blockade are working. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refineries representing roughly 30% of Russia’s total oil-processing capacity since late October.

Crude oil rebounded 2% to near $88 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a 10-week low driven by persistent tensions in the Middle East and limited progress in peace negotiations. Iran reiterated that it would not surrender any enriched nuclear material, highlighting a key obstacle to talks, while Tehran denied that negotiations with Washington were underway despite President Donald Trump’s suggestion that further US strikes might not be necessary. Meanwhile, Saudi crude production rose 26% in October to 10.56 million barrels per day, its highest level since the war began. In the US, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories increased by 9 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks gained 1.5 million barrels. Separately, the EIA raised its 2027 forecasts for average US gasoline and diesel prices to $3.73 and $5.03 per gallon, respectively, but maintained its domestic crude production estimate at 14.3 million barrels per day.