Oil Eases on Thursday

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $62.5 per barrel on Friday, extending a nearly 3% loss from the previous session and heading for a second straight weekly decline, amid persistent oversupply concerns. The International Energy Agency reiterated that the market is likely to face a surplus of just over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, marking a record annual average glut, while also lowering its global oil demand forecast for that year. In its monthly report, the agency added that global inventories expanded in 2025 at the fastest pace since the 2020 pandemic. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said talks with Iran could stretch on for as long as a month, reducing the near-term likelihood of military action that could disrupt supplies. For now, he is pursuing a diplomatic approach aimed at limiting the country’s nuclear program. Adding to the broader weakness, a sharp selloff across financial markets also weighed on prices.

WTI crude oil futures fell to below $64.5 per barrel on Thursday, retreating after a 1% gain in the previous session, pressured by persistent oversupply despite ongoing Iran risk. Markets remain focused on tensions around Iran as the US signaled preference for a nuclear deal but kept military options open and deployed naval forces in the region, sustaining uncertainty over potential supply disruptions. Still, ample supply is capping prices. The IEA said global oil inventories rose at the fastest pace since 2020 last year and expects a sizeable surplus in 2026 as supply exceeds demand. Rising stockpiles reinforce expectations of an oversupplied market. Flows from Venezuela are also returning as China buys cargoes previously linked to the US.

WTI crude oil futures rose toward $65 per barrel on Thursday, extending gains from previous sessions and hovering near an almost five-month high as markets remained focused on US-Iran tensions. Although President Donald Trump signaled he aims to secure an agreement with Tehran following regional talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, traders continue to worry about potential military action and the risk to supply. Limiting further upside, EIA data showed US crude inventories surged by 8.5 million barrels last week, reaching their highest level since late June. Meanwhile, OPEC kept its 2026 and 2027 demand growth forecasts unchanged at 1.38 million bpd and 1.34 million bpd, respectively, and maintained its non-OPEC supply outlook. The IEA is set to release its monthly report later today, which may again highlight a global surplus.