Cotton Falls From 2-Week High

Cotton futures fell below 79 cents per pound after reaching its highest level in two weeks, as traders weighed a lower global supply outlook and signs of improving export demand against an accelerating US harvest. A quickly progressing US harvest continues to weigh on prices, with 71% of the crop harvested by the week ended November 8th, above the five-year average of 63%. Providing an offsetting pressure, in its latest WASDE report, the USDA cut its 2026/27 global production forecast to 25.58 million tonnes from 25.68 million, while leaving consumption unchanged. Support also came from USDA's weekly export sales report for the week ending October 29th that showed an increase of 28% from the previous week, lending further support to the market. However, gains remain limited by intensifying competition from Brazil, whose exports rose 15.1% year-on-year in October, highlighting the country's growing influence in global trade.

Cotton futures rose to around 78 cents per pound, rising from its lowest level in four months following a stronger-than-expected weekly sales report. The USDA's weekly export sales report for the week ending October 29th showed an increase of 28% from the previous week, lending support to the market ahead of Tuesday’s monthly WASDE report. However, upside potential remains limited by the accelerating US harvest, with 63% of the crop harvested by the week ended October 25, above the five-year average of 54%. The seasonal increase in supply is adding pressure, while intensifying competition from Brazil is another headwind. Brazilian exports rose 15.1% year-on-year in October, highlighting the country's growing influence in global trade. Anea forecasts Brazilian shipments of around 3.4 million tonnes, compared with the USDA's forecast of 2.69 million tonnes for US exports.

Cotton futures held near 78 cents per pound, close to its lowest level in a month as rising harvest supplies weighed on prices. The US harvest continues to advance, with 63% of the crop harvested by the week ended October 25, above the five-year average of 54%. Peak harvest typically adds seasonal pressure as new supplies enter the market. Competition from Brazil, the world’s leading cotton exporter, is also intensifying, with Anea forecasting shipments of around 3.4 million tonnes, compared with the USDA’s US export forecast of 2.69 million tonnes. Meanwhile, progress in US-China trade talks has yet to deliver meaningful tariff relief, prompting Chinese buyers to scale back foreign purchases. In addition, an accelerating negative feedback from downstream textile demand in China, the world's largest producer of textiles, acts as a marginal driver, where the expected seasonal recovery in September and October failed to materialise.