Cotton Falls as Harvest Advances

Cotton futures fell below 78 cents per pound, reaching its lowest level in four months as rising harvest supplies weighed on prices. The US harvest continues to advance, with 63% of the crop harvested by the week ended October 25, above the five-year average of 54%. Peak harvest typically adds seasonal pressure as new supplies enter the market. Competition from Brazil, the world’s leading cotton exporter, is also intensifying, with Anea forecasting shipments of around 3.4 million tonnes, compared with the USDA’s US export forecast of 2.69 million tonnes. Meanwhile, progress in US-China trade talks has yet to deliver meaningful tariff relief, prompting Chinese buyers to scale back foreign purchases. In addition, an accelerating negative feedback from downstream textile demand in China, the world's largest producer of textiles, acts as a marginal driver, where the expected seasonal recovery in September and October failed to materialise.

Cotton decreased to 77.60 USd/Lbs, the lowest since October 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cotton lost 3.92%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 18.29%.

Cotton futures fell below 80 cents per pound, approaching a three-month low as rising harvest supplies weighed on prices. The US harvest continues to advance, with 52% of the crop havested by the week ending October 25th, above the five-year average of 45%. Peak harvest typically pressures prices as newly available supplies enter the market. Seasonal supply pressure is compounded by intensifying export competition with Brazil, the world’s leading cotton exporter, which is expected to ship around 3.4 million tonnes, according to Anea, compared with the USDA’s US export forecast of 2.69 million tonnes. Meanwhile, progress in US–China trade talks has yet to deliver clear tariff relief, prompting Chinese buyers to scale back foreign purchases, reflected in a drop in China’s cotton imports of 42.6% year-on-year in September. In contrast, India is expected to extend duty-free cotton imports through December amid tight domestic supplies, supporting some demand.