Cotton Drops Toward Three-Month Low

Cotton futures fell below 80 cents per pound, approaching a three-month low as rising harvest supplies weighed on prices. The US harvest continues to advance, with 52% of the crop havested by the week ending October 25th, above the five-year average of 45%. Peak harvest typically pressures prices as newly available supplies enter the market. Seasonal supply pressure is compounded by intensifying export competition with Brazil, the world’s leading cotton exporter, which is expected to ship around 3.4 million tonnes, according to Anea, compared with the USDA’s US export forecast of 2.69 million tonnes. Meanwhile, progress in US–China trade talks has yet to deliver clear tariff relief, prompting Chinese buyers to scale back foreign purchases, reflected in a drop in China’s cotton imports of 42.6% year-on-year in September. In contrast, India is expected to extend duty-free cotton imports through December amid tight domestic supplies, supporting some demand.

Cotton futures traded around 80 cents per pound, holding within a narrow range since early October as rising US supply and softer export demand continued to weigh on prices. The US harvest continues to advance, with 41% of the crop harvested by the week ending October 18th, above the five-year average of 37%. Meanwhile, a White House assistance program to help rural producers cover fuel costs could further support the harvesting process. Supply expectations also increased in the latest WASDE report, which raised its global production forecast for the August 2026–July 2027 season to 25.8 million tonnes from 25.66 million, reflecting higher output projections for the US and Brazil. An intensifying competition from Brazil, the world's leading cotton exporter, continues to weigh on US export prospects. Brazil's Anea projects shipments of around 3.4 million tonnes over the period, compared with WASDE's US export forecast of 2.69 million tonnes.

Cotton futures fell below 81 cents per pound but remained near a two-month low amid prospects of rising global supply. The latest WASDE report raised its global production forecast for the August 2026–July 2027 season to 25.8 million tonnes from 25.66 million previously, driven by higher projections for the US (2.93 million vs. 2.88 million tonnes) and Brazil (4.15 million vs. 4.03 million tonnes). Export competition is also expected to intensify, with Brazil’s export forecast raised to 3.48 million tonnes from 3.38 million. Shipments from Brazil between July and September of 2026 increased 18% from a year earlier to 453 thousand tonnes. Meanwhile, US exports have declined in recent weeks, though forecasts remain unchanged at 2.69 million tonnes between August 2026 and July 2027. Adding to the bearish pressure, 31% of the US crop has been harvested, above the five-year average of 29%. However, a hurricane threatening cotton crops in Alabama and the Delta could pose risks to supply.