Cotton Holds Steady for a Third Week

Cotton futures traded around 80 cents per pound, holding within a narrow range since early October as rising US supply and softer export demand continued to weigh on prices. The US harvest continues to advance, with 41% of the crop harvested by the week ending October 18th, above the five-year average of 37%. Meanwhile, a White House assistance program to help rural producers cover fuel costs could further support harvesting progress. Supply expectations also increased in the latest WASDE report, which raised its global production forecast for the August 2026–July 2027 season to 25.8 million tonnes from 25.66 million, reflecting higher output projections for the US and Brazil. An intensifying competition from Brazil, the world's leading cotton exporter, continues to weigh on US export prospects. Brazil's Anea projects shipments of around 3.4 million tonnes over the period, compared with WASDE's US export forecast of 2.69 million tonnes.

Cotton futures fell below 81 cents per pound but remained near a two-month low amid prospects of rising global supply. The latest WASDE report raised its global production forecast for the August 2026–July 2027 season to 25.8 million tonnes from 25.66 million previously, driven by higher projections for the US (2.93 million vs. 2.88 million tonnes) and Brazil (4.15 million vs. 4.03 million tonnes). Export competition is also expected to intensify, with Brazil’s export forecast raised to 3.48 million tonnes from 3.38 million. Shipments from Brazil between July and September of 2026 increased 18% from a year earlier to 453 thousand tonnes. Meanwhile, US exports have declined in recent weeks, though forecasts remain unchanged at 2.69 million tonnes between August 2026 and July 2027. Adding to the bearish pressure, 31% of the US crop has been harvested, above the five-year average of 29%. However, a hurricane threatening cotton crops in Alabama and the Delta could pose risks to supply.

Cotton futures traded around 80 cents per pound, near its lowest level in two months, amid concerns over the weather and its impact on crops. Heavy rainfall across Texas, a key US cotton-growing region, raised concerns over crop quality, particularly where bolls had already opened. However, no further rain is forecast this week, limiting the upside for prices. Providing an offsetting pressure, the US harvest is quickly progressing, with 23% of the crop harvested compared with the five-year average of 21%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA crop progress report. Adding to the bearish pressure is an intensifying competition in global markets. Brazil exported a record 3.37 million tonnes between August 2025 and July 2026, an increase of 19% from the previous marketing year. US exports reached approximately 2.61 million tonnes over the same period.