Corn Eases as Traders Await USDA Crop Forecast

Corn futures fell toward $5 a bushel, pressured by a stronger US dollar and caution ahead of the USDA’s monthly WASDE report due Friday. Prices surged to a one-week high on Tuesday after weekly USDA data showed corn harvest progress and crop conditions below market expectations. Only 23% of the US crop had been harvested by October 4, below the 27% five-year average and 26% expected by analysts; while the good-to-excellent crop rating also fell to 54% from 57% a week earlier, as heavy Midwest rainfall delayed fieldwork. Meanwhile, hot, dry weather earlier in the summer and heavy September rains have added uncertainty over yields and harvest potential, encouraging a wait-and-see approach ahead of Friday’s forecast.

Corn futures rose toward $5.1 per bushel, hitting a one-week high as concerns over delayed US harvesting and weak crop conditions supported prices. Only 23% of the US corn crop had been harvested by October 4, below the 27% five-year average and 26% expected by analysts, after heavy Midwest rainfall delayed fieldwork. The share of the crop rated good-to-excellent also fell to 54% from 57% a week earlier. Export demand remains relatively firm, with 2026/27 shipments running 4.4% above last year at a record pace for this point in the marketing year, despite weekly inspections falling to 1.368 million tones. Elsewhere, Brazil’s first corn crop was 38% planted, slightly behind 40% a year earlier. Geopolitical risks added support, as Russia-Ukraine tensions raised concerns over disruptions to Black Sea grain shipping. Traders now await Friday’s USDA report for updated production and yield estimates, with current forecasts at 178.5 bushels per acre and 15.8 billion bushels of output.

Corn futures fell below $5.0 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in six weeks, as larger-than-expected US inventories and weak export demand continued to pressure prices. The USDA reported US corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels as of September 1, up 35% from a year earlier and above the 1.924 billion bushels expected by markets. The data reinforced concerns over abundant supplies as the 2026 harvest progresses, with drier weather expected to allow fieldwork to accelerate across much of the Midwest. Export demand has also remained soft, with total US corn commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year at 18.774 million tonnes, 31% below the same period last year and 8% below the five-year average. The decline in prices also reflected broader weakness across grain markets as China excluded soybeans from proposed tariff reductions on US agricultural goods. A private sale of 218,600 tonnes of US corn to Mexico provided some support, including 173,800 tonnes for 2026/27.