Arabica Coffee Hovers Around 3-Month Lows

2026-09-24 11:51 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.73 per pound, near their lowest since June, amid signs of increased global supply and more favorable prospects for Brazil's next crop.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that global output in 2025/26 will have grown 4.4% yoy to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is estimated to have fallen 0.9% to 180.6 million, leaving a surplus of around 3 million bags, the first in five years.

Brazilian supply is also picking up, with coffee exports up 31% yoy to a record 4.155 million bags in August.

Large volumes of Brazilian Arabica are also heading to ICE warehouses, which could help replenish low inventories.

Meanwhile, recent rains in Brazil’s main producing regions have improved soil moisture during a crucial period for flowering and development of the 2027/28 crop.

However, the outlook remains weather-dependent, particularly from December to March, when rainfall will be key for fruit development and final yields.



News Stream
Arabica Coffee Hovers Around 3-Month Lows
Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.73 per pound, near their lowest since June, amid signs of increased global supply and more favorable prospects for Brazil's next crop. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that global output in 2025/26 will have grown 4.4% yoy to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is estimated to have fallen 0.9% to 180.6 million, leaving a surplus of around 3 million bags, the first in five years. Brazilian supply is also picking up, with coffee exports up 31% yoy to a record 4.155 million bags in August. Large volumes of Brazilian Arabica are also heading to ICE warehouses, which could help replenish low inventories. Meanwhile, recent rains in Brazil’s main producing regions have improved soil moisture during a crucial period for flowering and development of the 2027/28 crop. However, the outlook remains weather-dependent, particularly from December to March, when rainfall will be key for fruit development and final yields.
2026-09-24
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Coffee decreased to 281.40 USd/Lbs, the lowest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 11.33%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 24.96%.
2026-09-16
Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Lows
Arabica coffee futures fell below $2.75 per pound, their lowest level since June, pressured by the strong pace of shipments from Brazil’s recently harvested crop and prospects for greater availability next year. Brazilian green coffee exports remained strong in early September, following a record high for the month of August, with shipments of the bean increasing by more than 50%, according to data from Secex. Meanwhile, Climatempo reported that the main Arabica-producing region of Minas Gerais received 59.4 mm of rain (1,212% of the historical average) last week, a bearish factor that strongly favors the initial development of the next crop. Still, inventories remain low at 27-year lows and the supply outlook is still vulnerable to climate risks. In particular, a strong El Niño and related changes in rainfall and temperatures across the country could interfere with key stages of the coffee plant’s cycle, including flowering, fruit set, bean filling and uniform ripening.
2026-09-16