Coffee Futures Hover Around 7-Month Lows

2026-03-05 10:47 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded slightly above $2.80 per pound, staying near their lowest level since July 2025, as the supply outlook continued to be shaped by Brazil’s robust production outlook for the upcoming seasons.

Recent favorable weather has supported the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop, as substantial rainfall has aided Arabica production areas.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags.

Moreover, the market is anticipating the potential for record production in 2027/28, which could exceed 80 million bags, provided there are no adverse weather events such as frosts next winter or new periods of drought between September 2026 and February 2027.

Adding further pressure, ICE arabica stocks rose for the third session to 528,028 bags by March 4.

Meanwhile, the market is watching the Iranian conflict, as rising oil prices push up global logistics costs and pressure maritime freight for Brazil’s exports.



News Stream
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Arabica coffee futures eased to near $2.9 per pound, the lowest in over two weeks, pressured by expectations of increased global supply, especially from top producer Brazil. The start of the harvest in the coming weeks is expected to gradually increase the availability of coffee in the physical market, which reinforces seasonal pressure on prices. On Thursday, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing last week’s forecast from Sucafina of 75.4 million bags, and representing a 15.5% year-on-year increase. Earlier this month, StoneX also raised its Brazil 2026/27 production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags in November. At the same time, certified Arabica stocks have picked up recently, though still below historical norms, providing some relief to near-term supply pressures. Meanwhile, the market remains alert as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, boosting transportation and operational costs.
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