Coffee Futures Hover Around 7-Month Lows

2026-03-05 10:47 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded slightly above $2.80 per pound, staying near their lowest level since July 2025, as the supply outlook continued to be shaped by Brazil’s robust production outlook for the upcoming seasons.

Recent favorable weather has supported the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop, as substantial rainfall has aided Arabica production areas.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags.

Moreover, the market is anticipating the potential for record production in 2027/28, which could exceed 80 million bags, provided there are no adverse weather events such as frosts next winter or new periods of drought between September 2026 and February 2027.

Adding further pressure, ICE arabica stocks rose for the third session to 528,028 bags by March 4.

Meanwhile, the market is watching the Iranian conflict, as rising oil prices push up global logistics costs and pressure maritime freight for Brazil’s exports.



News Stream
Coffee Futures Hover Around 7-Month Lows
Arabica coffee futures traded slightly above $2.80 per pound, staying near their lowest level since July 2025, as the supply outlook continued to be shaped by Brazil’s robust production outlook for the upcoming seasons. Recent favorable weather has supported the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop, as substantial rainfall has aided Arabica production areas. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags. Moreover, the market is anticipating the potential for record production in 2027/28, which could exceed 80 million bags, provided there are no adverse weather events such as frosts next winter or new periods of drought between September 2026 and February 2027. Adding further pressure, ICE arabica stocks rose for the third session to 528,028 bags by March 4. Meanwhile, the market is watching the Iranian conflict, as rising oil prices push up global logistics costs and pressure maritime freight for Brazil’s exports.
2026-03-05
Arabica Coffee Market Faces Oversupply Pressure
Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, hovering near their lowest level since July 2025 and more than 30% below the 8-month high of $4.23 on November 11, driven by a significant improvement in global supply expectations, particularly from Brazil, the world's leading producer. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags, fueled by beneficial rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais. Furthermore, a recovery in ICE-monitored inventories and soaring exports from Vietnam have alleviated the supply tightness that gripped the market throughout much of 2025. Although a firmer Brazilian real triggered some short covering, sentiment remains weak as the market shifts from scarcity toward a potential surplus.
2026-02-25
Arabica Coffee Futures Rise Slightly
Arabica coffee futures rose to cross $2.80 per pound, recovering slightly from recent 15-month lows of $2.78, driven primarily by tight short-term supplies and speculative activity. Dealers also noted that a strengthening Brazilian real can make farmers reluctant to sell at current prices, limiting supply. Despite this, the market remains subdued amid forecasts of a record 2026 harvest in top producer Brazil, where heavy rains since mid-January have improved crop prospects. For the upcoming 2026/27 season, the National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts Brazil’s coffee harvest at 66.2 million 60-kg bags, including 44.1 million bags of Arabica, while Eisa brokerage projects the crop could reach 75.8 million bags.
2026-02-24