Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Week Low

2026-03-30 14:28 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded near $2.9 per pound, the lowest in over two weeks, pressured by expectations of increased global supply, especially from top producer Brazil.

The start of the harvest in the coming weeks is expected to gradually increase the availability of coffee in the physical market, which reinforces seasonal pressure on prices.

On Thursday, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing last week’s forecast from Sucafina of 75.4 million bags, and representing a 15.5% year-on-year increase.

Earlier this month, StoneX also raised its Brazil 2026/27 production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags in November.

At the same time, certified Arabica stocks have picked up recently, though still below historical norms, providing some relief to near-term supply pressures.

Meanwhile, the market remains alert as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, boosting transportation and operational costs.



News Stream
Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Low
Arabica coffee futures extended their decline to around $2.9 per pound, hovering near the lowest since June, as the completion of Brazil’s harvest brings greater availability to the market. The country is heading for a record coffee crop in 2026, benefiting from a strong biennial cycle, expanded production areas and favorable weather. Moreover, Brazilian coffee exports surged 45% over a year ago in August. However, the balance between global supply and demand remains tight and vulnerable to climate risks. ICE arabica coffee inventories continued to fall and reached a 27-year low of 223,712 bags by September 3. Meanwhile, the onset of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific is putting Brazil’s 2027 coffee crop under closer scrutiny. The associated changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions of the country could interfere with crucial stages of the coffee plant's cycle, such as flowering, as well as affecting fruit set, bean filling, and the uniformity of ripening.
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Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Low
Arabica coffee futures eased toward $3 per pound, reaching their lowest since late June, pressured by expectations of higher output from top producer Brazil. The 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% complete by August 26, according to Safras & Mercado, with Arabica at 96% and the country on track for a potentially record crop..Rabobank echoed the favorable supply outlook, saying it still expects a “very comfortable” global coffee balance in 2026/27, with a surplus of 8.9 million bags. However, it noted that delays in Brazil and earthquake-related problems in Colombia are keeping stocks tight, with significant replenishment unlikely before November.. Arabica coffee stocks monitored by ICE continued to fall, reaching 223,976 bags by August 31, the lowest level in 27 years. Meanwhile, next year’s harvest remained in focus, with the outlook clouded by erratic weather and the risk of a strong El Niño potentially delaying critical rainfall during the September-October flowering period.
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