Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Week Low

2026-03-30 14:28 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded near $2.9 per pound, the lowest in over two weeks, pressured by expectations of increased global supply, especially from top producer Brazil.

The start of the harvest in the coming weeks is expected to gradually increase the availability of coffee in the physical market, which reinforces seasonal pressure on prices.

On Thursday, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing last week’s forecast from Sucafina of 75.4 million bags, and representing a 15.5% year-on-year increase.

Earlier this month, StoneX also raised its Brazil 2026/27 production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags in November.

At the same time, certified Arabica stocks have picked up recently, though still below historical norms, providing some relief to near-term supply pressures.

Meanwhile, the market remains alert as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, boosting transportation and operational costs.



News Stream
Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 1-Week Low
Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.10 per pound, consolidating near their lowest level in more than a week after a sharp rally and recent volatility driven by weather-related supply concerns. Dealers said the harvest in top coffee grower Brazil had been gathering pace, though lagging last year's pace, reinforcing expectations of greater supply in the short term. Market participants also continued to monitor bean quality following delays caused by heavy rains in June and early July. Tight global coffee stocks left prices sensitive to any further harvest delays or signs of lower-quality beans. At the same time, buyers and sellers continue to adopt a cautious stance, which reduces the volume of transactions in the physical market. Meanwhile, Cecafé reported that Brazil's June green coffee exports increased 14.4% from a year earlier to 2.64 million bags. The exemption of Brazilian instant coffee from the new 25% US tariff also provided relief to exporters.
2026-07-17
Arabica Coffee Futures Stay Volatile
Arabica coffee futures oscillated between $3.20 and $3.50 per pound, as investors closely tracked weather conditions and harvest progress in top producer Brazil. Volatility has intensified recently as tight global supplies have increased the market's sensitivity to weather developments, prompting investors to quickly adjust their positions. Despite expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop this season, weather remains a key source of uncertainty. Heavy June rains delayed harvesting before a subsequent dry spell raised concerns over bean quality and next season's crop. More recently, fresh forecasts of rain during the second half of July, coinciding with a critical period for harvesting, drying, and processing, renewed fears of further disruptions. Still, no frost was expected, and the risk of severe cold across the main producing regions remained low. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor the risk of El Niño and its potential impact on the development of the 2027/28 crop.
2026-07-10
Arabica Coffee Futures Advance
Arabica coffee futures rose to around $3.4 per pound as volatile trading persisted amid uncertainty over Brazil's crop outlook. Earlier this week, prices climbed roughly 16%, recording their largest gain since 2000 and surpassing the $3.50 mark for the first time since January. The sharp rally was triggered by weather-related supply concerns in Brazil, where heavy June rains delayed harvesting before a sharp shift to dry conditions raised fresh questions over bean quality and the next crop. Coffee crops are particularly sensitive to abrupt weather changes. Although drier weather has improved fieldwork, the harvest of what is expected to be a record crop remains behind schedule. In Southern Minas Gerais, Brazil's main coffee-producing region, only 30% of the harvest had been completed by mid-season, compared with 52% a year earlier. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor the risk of El Niño and its potential impact on flowering and the development of the 2027/28 crop.
2026-07-09