Arabica Coffee Market Faces Oversupply Pressure

2026-02-25 15:55 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, hovering near their lowest level since July 2025 and more than 30% below the 8-month high of $4.23 on November 11, driven by a significant improvement in global supply expectations, particularly from Brazil, the world's leading producer.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags, fueled by beneficial rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais.

Furthermore, a recovery in ICE-monitored inventories and soaring exports from Vietnam have alleviated the supply tightness that gripped the market throughout much of 2025.

Although a firmer Brazilian real triggered some short covering, sentiment remains weak as the market shifts from scarcity toward a potential surplus.



News Stream
Arabica Coffee Futures Hover at Over 1-Month Lows
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