Arabica Coffee Market Faces Oversupply Pressure

2026-02-25 15:55 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, hovering near their lowest level since July 2025 and more than 30% below the 8-month high of $4.23 on November 11, driven by a significant improvement in global supply expectations, particularly from Brazil, the world's leading producer.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags, fueled by beneficial rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais.

Furthermore, a recovery in ICE-monitored inventories and soaring exports from Vietnam have alleviated the supply tightness that gripped the market throughout much of 2025.

Although a firmer Brazilian real triggered some short covering, sentiment remains weak as the market shifts from scarcity toward a potential surplus.



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Arabica Coffee Market Faces Oversupply Pressure
Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, hovering near their lowest level since July 2025 and more than 30% below the 8-month high of $4.23 on November 11, driven by a significant improvement in global supply expectations, particularly from Brazil, the world's leading producer. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently projected a record-breaking 2026/27 harvest of 66.2 million bags, fueled by beneficial rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais. Furthermore, a recovery in ICE-monitored inventories and soaring exports from Vietnam have alleviated the supply tightness that gripped the market throughout much of 2025. Although a firmer Brazilian real triggered some short covering, sentiment remains weak as the market shifts from scarcity toward a potential surplus.
2026-02-25
Arabica Coffee Futures Rise Slightly
Arabica coffee futures rose to cross $2.80 per pound, recovering slightly from recent 15-month lows of $2.78, driven primarily by tight short-term supplies and speculative activity. Dealers also noted that a strengthening Brazilian real can make farmers reluctant to sell at current prices, limiting supply. Despite this, the market remains subdued amid forecasts of a record 2026 harvest in top producer Brazil, where heavy rains since mid-January have improved crop prospects. For the upcoming 2026/27 season, the National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts Brazil’s coffee harvest at 66.2 million 60-kg bags, including 44.1 million bags of Arabica, while Eisa brokerage projects the crop could reach 75.8 million bags.
2026-02-24
Coffee Hits 15-month Low
Coffee decreased to 277.15 USd/Lbs, the lowest since November 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 19.86%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 30.07%.
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