Arabica Coffee Futures Remain Near 6-Month Lows

Arabica coffee futures eased to near $2.8 per pound, the lowest since July 2025, pressured by Brazil's supply fundamentals and the rising dollar. The supply outlook in the leading producer remains solid, with a strong crop expected in the next (2026/27) season, even though some growing areas continue to face irregular weather conditions. It is worth noting, however, that supplies from the 2025/26 season remain tight. Recent rainfall across Brazil’s major coffee-producing regions has significantly improved crop prospects, alleviating earlier concerns over dry conditions that had threatened yield potential. The National Supply Company (Conab) anticipates a record 66.2 million 60-kg bags in Brazil’s upcoming harvest, with Arabica production accounting for 44.1 million bags. Eisa brokerage raises the bar further, estimating that the new crop could reach 75.8 million bags. These projections, if realized, would represent an unprecedented volume of coffee entering the global market.

Arabica coffee futures traded around $3 per pound, near the lowest in six months, pressured by widespread forecasts for a bumper crop in top grower Brazil and supportive weather conditions. Data from the National Supply Company (CONAB) on February 5 indicated that Brazilian production in 2026 is expected to grow by 17.2% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 66.2 million bags, with Arabica production totaling 44.1 million bags, and Robusta production increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, to 22.1 million bags. Simultaneously, brokerage firm Eisa said that Brazil's new coffee crop, which will begin to be harvested in a few months, is expected to reach a record volume of 75.8 million 60-kg bags. Researchers at Cepea noted that the improved weather conditions for much of January and the expectation of continued humidity in early February are factors that should favor grain filling during this crucial phase of the coffee season.

Coffee decreased to 314.50 USd/Lbs, the lowest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 12.31%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.21%.