Coffee Futures Rise to 4-Week High

2025-10-15 09:22 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures climbed above $4.00 per pound, the highest in four weeks, as persistent dry weather in Brazil’s main coffee-growing region fueled supply concerns.

Meteorologist Somar reported that Minas Gerais, responsible for much of Brazil’s arabica output, received only 48% of normal rainfall in the week to October 11, threatening the flowering of the 2026/27 crop.

Additionally, ICE coffee inventories have been declining, with arabica stocks at a 1.5-year low of 498,088 bags and robusta inventories at a 2.75-month low.

US tariffs of 50% on Brazilian coffee have exacerbated the situation, prompting American buyers to cancel contracts and depleting the domestic supply, as Brazil provides roughly one-third of the US's unroasted coffee.

Further adding to bullish sentiment, NOAA raised the probability of a La Niña event to 71%, which could deepen Brazil’s drought.

Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, cut its 2025 arabica production forecast by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags.



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