Coffee Futures Rise to 4-Week High

2025-10-15 09:22 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures climbed above $4.00 per pound, the highest in four weeks, as persistent dry weather in Brazil’s main coffee-growing region fueled supply concerns.

Meteorologist Somar reported that Minas Gerais, responsible for much of Brazil’s arabica output, received only 48% of normal rainfall in the week to October 11, threatening the flowering of the 2026/27 crop.

Additionally, ICE coffee inventories have been declining, with arabica stocks at a 1.5-year low of 498,088 bags and robusta inventories at a 2.75-month low.

US tariffs of 50% on Brazilian coffee have exacerbated the situation, prompting American buyers to cancel contracts and depleting the domestic supply, as Brazil provides roughly one-third of the US's unroasted coffee.

Further adding to bullish sentiment, NOAA raised the probability of a La Niña event to 71%, which could deepen Brazil’s drought.

Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, cut its 2025 arabica production forecast by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags.



News Stream
Arabica Coffee Futures Stay Volatile
Arabica coffee futures oscillated between $3.20 and $3.50 per pound, as investors closely tracked weather conditions and harvest progress in top producer Brazil. Volatility has intensified recently as tight global supplies have increased the market's sensitivity to weather developments, prompting investors to quickly adjust their positions. Despite expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop this season, weather remains a key source of uncertainty. Heavy June rains delayed harvesting before a subsequent dry spell raised concerns over bean quality and next season's crop. More recently, fresh forecasts of rain during the second half of July, coinciding with a critical period for harvesting, drying, and processing, renewed fears of further disruptions. Still, no frost was expected, and the risk of severe cold across the main producing regions remained low. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor the risk of El Niño and its potential impact on the development of the 2027/28 crop.
2026-07-10
Arabica Coffee Futures Advance
Arabica coffee futures rose to around $3.4 per pound as volatile trading persisted amid uncertainty over Brazil's crop outlook. Earlier this week, prices climbed roughly 16%, recording their largest gain since 2000 and surpassing the $3.50 mark for the first time since January. The sharp rally was triggered by weather-related supply concerns in Brazil, where heavy June rains delayed harvesting before a sharp shift to dry conditions raised fresh questions over bean quality and the next crop. Coffee crops are particularly sensitive to abrupt weather changes. Although drier weather has improved fieldwork, the harvest of what is expected to be a record crop remains behind schedule. In Southern Minas Gerais, Brazil's main coffee-producing region, only 30% of the harvest had been completed by mid-season, compared with 52% a year earlier. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor the risk of El Niño and its potential impact on flowering and the development of the 2027/28 crop.
2026-07-09
Arabica Coffee Futures Halt Rally
Arabica coffee futures fell nearly 8% to around $3.20 per pound, as profit-taking followed a rally to a five-month high of nearly $3.50 on July 6. The earlier advance was underpinned by weather concerns in top producer Brazil, where colder forecasts, potential El Niño-related risks, harvest delays, and tight coffee supplies triggered buying and short covering. However, updated forecasts from Climatempo pointed to mostly dry weather across Brazil's main coffee-growing regions, supporting harvest progress and easing frost concerns. Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest had reached only 52% of the planted area by July 1, below last year's 60% pace and the five-year average of 55%, highlighting the slower arrival of new supplies.
2026-07-07