Cocoa Futures Hover Around $5,900

2026-08-26 15:04 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Cocoa futures traded around $5,900 per tonne, down slightly from recent one-month highs of nearly $6,100, pressured by signs of abundant supplies.

Cumulative data from top exporter Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.999 MMT of cocoa to ports by August 23 since the start of the season on October 1, up 20.2% from the same period a year ago.

Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, also reported an 18% year-on-year increase in July exports to 16,052 metric tons, according to Bloomberg.

While stronger supply has eased near-term concerns, rising weather risks are fueling expectations of tighter conditions next season.

A strong El Niño could delay rainfall and extend dry conditions across major West African producers, while hotter and wetter weather in Ecuador could increase the risk of crop disease.

In Ivory Coast, farmers reported below-average rainfall last week and said more rain, combined with sunny periods, would be needed to support the September-to-February main crop.



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Cocoa Futures Hover Around $5,900
Cocoa futures traded around $5,900 per tonne, down slightly from recent one-month highs of nearly $6,100, pressured by signs of abundant supplies. Cumulative data from top exporter Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.999 MMT of cocoa to ports by August 23 since the start of the season on October 1, up 20.2% from the same period a year ago. Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, also reported an 18% year-on-year increase in July exports to 16,052 metric tons, according to Bloomberg. While stronger supply has eased near-term concerns, rising weather risks are fueling expectations of tighter conditions next season. A strong El Niño could delay rainfall and extend dry conditions across major West African producers, while hotter and wetter weather in Ecuador could increase the risk of crop disease. In Ivory Coast, farmers reported below-average rainfall last week and said more rain, combined with sunny periods, would be needed to support the September-to-February main crop.
2026-08-26
Cocoa Futures at Over 1-Month High
Cocoa futures traded above $5,900 per tonne, holding close to the highest since early July, amid a subdued US dolar and ongoing concerns over the upcoming West African crop. Although the 2025/26 season has seen a substantial recovery in supply amid improved weather, traders are becoming more cautious about the 2026/27 outlook as weather risks increase. A potentially strong El Niño could delay rainfall and extend dry conditions in major producers in West Africa, while hotter and wetter conditions in Ecuador could increase disease risks. Hedgepoint Global Markets now projects the global cocoa surplus to narrow 66% to 111,000 tons in 2026/27, from 325,000 tons this season. Meanwhile, production forecasts for major producers have also been lowered, with Ghana expecting output to fall 13% to 650,000 tons next season, while Ivory Coast’s crop is seen declining by more than 10%.
2026-08-20
Cocoa Futures Higher
Cocoa futures rose toward $5,800 per tonne, supported by a weaker US dollar and falling inventories, alongside concerns over the 2026/27 crop outlook. Although the current season has seen a substantial improvement in supply, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of tighter conditions next season as weather risks build across West Africa. In Ivory Coast, farmers have warned that plantations need more sunshine following a period of below-average rainfall and cooler temperatures, with continued unfavorable conditions potentially hampering development of the September-to-February main crop. The developing El Niño pattern is adding to production risks, prompting StoneX in late July to cut its estimate for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to 25,000 MT from 149,000 MT in April. Limiting the upside, however, COCOBOD’s new financing model has eased concerns that liquidity constraints in Ghana could disrupt cocoa purchases and exports.
2026-08-17