Cocoa Traders Balance Crop Risks and Supply Outlook

2026-08-10 13:49 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Cocoa prices eased to around $5,700 per tonne, leaving the market little changed for the year as traders continued to assess crop prospects and weather risks.

Attention remained focused on the outlook for the 2026/27 season, with expectations of lower production potentially helping to rebalance the market following a substantial global surplus in 2025/26.

Production forecasts for major growers Ivory Coast and Ghana have already been reduced, while adverse weather is adding to concerns over the next crop.

In Ivory Coast, below-average rainfall, overcast conditions and a recent spell of colder weather have raised concerns about the development of the September-to-February main crop, according to farmers.

Supply risks are also emerging elsewhere, with estimates suggesting that Ecuador, Peru and Southeast Asia could collectively produce around 100,000 tonnes less cocoa next season.



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Cocoa Traders Balance Crop Risks and Supply Outlook
Cocoa prices eased to around $5,700 per tonne, leaving the market little changed for the year as traders continued to assess crop prospects and weather risks. Attention remained focused on the outlook for the 2026/27 season, with expectations of lower production potentially helping to rebalance the market following a substantial global surplus in 2025/26. Production forecasts for major growers Ivory Coast and Ghana have already been reduced, while adverse weather is adding to concerns over the next crop. In Ivory Coast, below-average rainfall, overcast conditions and a recent spell of colder weather have raised concerns about the development of the September-to-February main crop, according to farmers. Supply risks are also emerging elsewhere, with estimates suggesting that Ecuador, Peru and Southeast Asia could collectively produce around 100,000 tonnes less cocoa next season.
2026-08-10
Cocoa Futures Hover Near 1-Month High
Cocoa prices traded around $5,800 per tonne, close to their highest in nearly a month, influenced by crop forecasts and ongoing climate risks. Supply concerns have intensified in the key producing region of West Africa after Ghana's cocoa regulator COCOBOD projected a decline of at least 16% in 2026/27 cocoa production due to unfavorable weather, disease, ageing plantations, illegal mining, and the crop's natural yield cycle. Expectations of a more than 10% drop in Ivory Coast's output next season, along with the risk of excessive rainfall boosting disease pressure, further supported prices. Additionally, concerns mounted that Ecuador, Peru and Southeast Asia could together produce 100,000 tons less cocoa.
2026-08-06
Cocoa at Over 3-Week High
Cocoa prices rose above $6,000 per tonne, their highest in more than three weeks, supported by renewed concerns about supply from West Africa. Ghana's cocoa regulator COCOBOD estimated cocoa production will decline by at least 16% in the 2026/27 season, citing unfavorable weather, the cocoa tree's natural alternating yield cycle, disease, ageing plantations and illegal gold mining. Supply concerns were reinforced by expectations of a more than 10% decline in Ivory Coast's production next season. While crop prospects remain generally favorable, farmers said more sunshine and timely fertilizer and pesticide applications are needed, warning that excessive rainfall later in the season could increase disease risks and further tighten global cocoa supplies.
2026-08-03