Cocoa Rises to Over 2-Week High

Cocoa prices climbed above $5,700 per tonne, their highest level since July 15, after Ghana projected a sharp decline in cocoa production for the 2026/27 season. Market regulator COCOBOD expects output to fall by at least 16%, citing unfavorable weather, the cocoa tree's natural alternating yield cycle, disease, ageing plantations and illegal gold mining. Supply concerns were reinforced by expectations of a more than 10% decline in Ivory Coast's production next season. While crop prospects remain generally favorable, farmers said more sunshine and timely fertilizer and pesticide applications are needed, warning that excessive rainfall later in the season could increase disease risks and further tighten global cocoa supplies.

Cocoa increased 5.34% to 5384.74 USD/T

Cocoa prices fell below $5,200 per tonne, the lowest level in nearly three weeks, extending their retreat from the eight-month high of $6,455 reached on July 9. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming earnings from major chocolate producers for indications that higher prices are no longer weighing on consumption. On Tuesday, Lindt said it could introduce selective price cuts in the second half of 2026 to support sales volumes after its half-year results raised questions about the pace of demand growth. Meanwhile, Citigroup adopted a neutral stance on cocoa after previously holding a bullish view, saying it wants more evidence of El Niño-related crop damage and stronger demand before turning positive again. On the supply side, the International Cocoa Organization forecast Indonesia's cocoa production to rise to 220,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season from 200,000 tonnes a year earlier.