Coal Hovers Near 3-Month High

Coal prices held above $145 per ton in mid-September, remaining near their highest levels in three months as the IEA said disruptions from the Middle East conflict had pushed oil and natural gas prices higher, encouraging a shift toward coal-fired power generation. The IEA now forecasts global coal demand to increase 1.2% to a record 8.94 billion tons this year, reversing its previous projection for a slight decline. Although the Middle East is not a major coal producer and virtually no coal shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, major economies across Europe and Asia have increasingly turned to coal for power generation amid a sharp drop in LNG shipments. Higher oil prices have also prompted China to increase coal consumption for chemical production. The IEA added that global coal output is expected to decline in 2026 due largely to developments in China, where safety inspections following a major mine accident in May have significantly reduced production.

Coal prices rose above $145 a tonne, hovering near a three-month high, as the International Energy Agency warned that global consumption is set to reach a record this year. The IEA expects demand to increase 1.2% to 8.94 billion tons in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast for a decline. Higher natural gas prices, driven partly by uncertainty over LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, are encouraging power generators to switch from gas to coal. This trend has been evident across major markets including China, South Korea, Japan and Europe. Strong El Niño conditions are also boosting electricity demand for cooling while reducing hydropower generation in countries such as India and Vietnam. Although expanding wind and solar capacity is limiting the growth of fossil fuels, rising global electricity demand continues to support coal consumption. The IEA warned that if LNG flows through Hormuz remain disrupted, global coal demand could reach another record in 2027.

Coal prices rallied above $145 per ton in early September, reaching their highest levels in twelve weeks amid robust global energy demand and persistent supply risks. The fossil fuel also advanced despite China reporting that solar power had become the country’s single largest source of electricity capacity, surpassing coal-fired power for the first time amid its push toward renewable energy. Still, coal remains the world’s largest source of power generation, producing nearly 11,000 TWh in 2026, while surging electricity demand is slowing efforts to replace the fuel with renewable energy. The IEA also expects coal to remain the largest single source of power generation through 2030, with no individual alternative expected to come close to replacing it. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has tightened global LNG supplies and driven energy prices higher, further strengthened the outlook for coal demand.