Brent Rises on US-Iran Deal Uncertainty

Brent crude futures rose toward $93 per barrel on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses as uncertainty continued to cloud prospects for a peace agreement between the US and Iran. Over the weekend, both sides exchanged proposals seeking revisions to a draft deal that would prolong the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though it remained unclear whether meaningful progress had been achieved. President Donald Trump also reaffirmed his demand that Iran halt its nuclear program and fully restore the strait’s status as an open international shipping route. Although oil prices recently posted a monthly decline amid expectations that Washington and Tehran could eventually reach a more durable agreement, they remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels as the near-shutdown of Hormuz triggered an unprecedented disruption to global energy supplies.

Brent crude oil futures fell about 2% to $91.2 per barrel on Friday, the lowest in roughly six weeks, putting them on track for a 17% decline in May, the most since 2020. The move followed reports that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend a ceasefire and ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although President Donald Trump has not yet approved the deal and Iranian state media said it has not been finalized. The potential agreement has raised expectations of an eventual end to the US-Israeli war in Iran and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Analysts warn that any recovery in flows would likely be slow, as mines would need clearing, damaged infrastructure repaired and shut-in production restarted, with tanker delays also limiting supply restoration.

Brent crude futures fell below $91 per barrel on Friday and remained on track for a sharp monthly loss after reports indicated that the US and Iran had tentatively agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and possibly permit unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The report also stated that Iran would clear all mines from the waterway within 30 days. Still, it noted that President Donald Trump has not yet approved the proposed terms, while Vice President JD Vance cautioned that it remains uncertain whether or when an agreement with Iran could be finalized. The international oil benchmark has dropped nearly 15% so far this month as optimism grew that some form of deal could eventually be reached, though major obstacles remain, including Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, control of the Hormuz passage and sanctions relief.