Aluminum Holds Rebound from 4-Month Low

2026-07-13 14:53 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

Aluminum futures in the UK were at $3,150,holding most of their rebound from the four-month low of $3,085 from earlier in July amid fresh threats to supply.

US President Trump stated he would reinstate the blockade of commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz following the exchange of strikes with Iran.

The move dented prospect that supply from the key region would be restored.

Pre-war exports from the GCC were responsible for 9% of global aluminum consumption.

On top of that, the surge in natural gas prices due to the shortage from the Middle East lifted operating costs for power-hungry aluminum smelters in Europe and Asia.

This added to constraints as the 45 million ton supply cap for China was due to become restricting this year.

Consequently, stocks of primary aluminum at the LME sank by 43% tonnes this year to 285,000 tonnes.

Also, industry giant Macquarie forecasted a global aluminum shortfall of around 930,000 tonnes.



News Stream
Aluminum Holds Rebound from 4-Month Low
Aluminum futures in the UK were at $3,150,holding most of their rebound from the four-month low of $3,085 from earlier in July amid fresh threats to supply. US President Trump stated he would reinstate the blockade of commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz following the exchange of strikes with Iran. The move dented prospect that supply from the key region would be restored. Pre-war exports from the GCC were responsible for 9% of global aluminum consumption. On top of that, the surge in natural gas prices due to the shortage from the Middle East lifted operating costs for power-hungry aluminum smelters in Europe and Asia. This added to constraints as the 45 million ton supply cap for China was due to become restricting this year. Consequently, stocks of primary aluminum at the LME sank by 43% tonnes this year to 285,000 tonnes. Also, industry giant Macquarie forecasted a global aluminum shortfall of around 930,000 tonnes.
2026-07-13
Aluminum Rises Further
Aluminum futures in the UK climbed to $3,200 per tonne, extending the rebound from a more than four-month low amid declining inventories and expectations of a shortage. Drawdowns from LME warehouses in recent weeks pushed total stocks below 300,000 tonnes for the first time since 2022, highlighting tight near-term availability. Although the resumption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz and announcements of smelter restarts in the Middle East had raised expectations of additional supply, some analysts noted that supply from the region may take longer than anticipated to reach the market. The aluminum market is also expected to see a deficit this year, with Macquarie forecasting a shortfall of around 930,000 tonnes. Prices were further supported by a softer US dollar after a weak US jobs report reduced expectations of an imminent rate hike, improving the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.
2026-07-07
Aluminum Rebounds
Aluminum futures in the UK rose above $3,100 per tonne, rebounding from a more than four-month low as the US dollar retreated, improving the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities. Softer US jobs data reduced expectations of a near-term rate hike, pushing the greenback to a two-week low. In addition, factory activity in China, one of the largest consumers of the metal, returned to expansion in June, supporting the demand outlook. However, price gains remained limited by improving supply prospects. The resumption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz following a US–Iran deal has increased the likelihood of additional supplies from the Persian Gulf, a region that accounts for nearly a tenth of global aluminum output. At the same time, production continued to rise in China, the world’s largest producer, while output from Indonesian smelters also expanded.
2026-07-03