Colombia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.60 9 9 9.3 9.3 9.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.68 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.3 percent
Interest Rate 4.50 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 0.31 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 USD Billion
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 46 46 46 45 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 2847.78
2917 2979 3042 3107 3381
Stock Market 1532.60
points
1483 1452 1423 1393 1181
Government Bond 10Y 6.55
percent
6.59 6.8 7.02 7.24 8.22
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60
percent
2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 3
GDP 282.46
USD Billion
345 345 345 345 375
GDP Constant Prices 138972.00
COP Billion
139650 140186 140548 140948 140939
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 36966.00
COP Billion
38000 38000 39000 39000 43000
GDP per capita 7525.90
USD
7790 7790 7609 7790 8150
GDP per capita PPP 13124.30
USD
13000 13000 13238 13000 13900
Gdp From Agriculture 8647.00
COP Billion
8750 8800 8850 8875 8995
Gdp From Construction 9993.00
COP Billion
9950 10000 10050 10050 10150
Gdp From Manufacturing 15022.00
COP Billion
14940 14967 14927 14898 14627
Gdp From Mining 8414.00
COP Billion
7960 8050 8120 8190 8320
Gdp From Transport 9671.00
COP Billion
9709 9696 9668 9668 9341
Gdp From Utilities 4673.00
COP Billion
4725 4749 4774 4800 5002
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.60
percent
9 9 9.3 9.3 9.4
Unemployed Persons 2138.54
Thousand
2250 2300 2200 2200 2000
Population 48.75
Million
49.7 50.3 50 50 51.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.80
percent
64.51 64.33 64.15 64.5 65
Employed Persons 22873.38
Thousand
22689 22731 22675 22659 22332
Employment Rate 58.70
percent
58.39 58.07 57.89 57.66 56.15
Wages High Skilled 2499200.00
COP/Month
2502030 2502030 2502030 2502030 2508498
Wages Low Skilled 830100.00
COP/Month
840000 840000 840000 840000 850000
Living Wage Family 1098000.00
COP/Month
1130472 1135761 1141049 1146337 1122026
Living Wage Individual 776200.00
COP/Month
773057 775990 778923 781856 779976
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.68
percent
4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.63
percent
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 139.72
Index Points
141 142 143 144 144
Core Consumer Prices 143.86
Index Points
145 147 148 149 150
Core Inflation Rate 4.72
percent
4.73 4.76 4.83 4.91 5.58
Producer Prices 111.50
Index Points
109 109 110 110 111
Food Inflation 1.49
percent
2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3
Import Prices 113.20
Index Points
112 112 112 112 111
CPI Housing Utilities 142.59
Index Points
141 142 142 143 150
CPI Transportation 130.15
Index Points
131 132 133 133 133
Export Prices 106.70
Index Points
106 106 106 106 105
Producer Prices Change 3.12
percent
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.50
percent
4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.5
Interbank Rate 4.50
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Money Supply M0 55325.82
COP Billion
55029 55214 55200 55160 54741
Money Supply M1 99678.42
COP Billion
99993 100519 100484 100421 99782
Money Supply M3 477656.45
COP Billion
491608 498237 501206 502451 500931
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47781.05
USD Million
47937 48058 48095 48090 47628
Deposit Interest Rate 6.80
percent
7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3
Central Bank Balance Sheet 166396.30
COP Billion
166426 166099 165761 165425 161480
Money Supply M2 437122.97
COP Billion
448597 453884 456161 457058 455310
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 0.31
USD Billion
-0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7
Exports 3.95
USD Billion
5.2 5.4 5.7 6.3 6.6
Imports 3.64
USD Billion
4 4.1 3.9 3.8 4
Current Account -2589.00
USD Million
-2700 -2700 -2650 -2650 -2550
Current Account to GDP -4.40
percent
-4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.5
External Debt 123843.42
COP Billion
114564 109125 103956 99046 56204
Foreign Direct Investment 4868.45
USD Million
3355 3464 3345 3220 2678
Capital Flows -2341.95
USD Million
-2553 -2479 -2421 -2416 -2234
Remittances 522.00
USD Million
485 485 490 490 540
Gold Reserves 6.69
Tonnes
7.04 7.35 7.64 7.84 8.43
Crude Oil Production 804.00
BBL/D/1K
809 808 806 804 785
Terms Of Trade 130.43
Index Points
129 128 128 127 121
Terrorism Index 5.60
6 6 6 6 6
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60
percent
46 46 46 45 47
Government Budget -4.00
percent of GDP
-3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7
Government Budget Value -4668.52
COP Billion
-1394 -1015 -801 -724 -684
Government Spending 24536.00
COP Billion
26000 26000 26000 26000 28000
Government Revenues 11466.83
COP Billion
11589 11139 11033 10867 9076
Fiscal Expenditure 16135.36
COP Billion
14839 14346 14381 14272 13408
Military Expenditure 9930.40
USD Million
9361 9477 9593 9708 9697
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 0.00
Index Points
-4.7 -4.5 -2.14 -5 2
Industrial Production -0.80
percent
1.2 1.4 1.7 2 3.4
Total Vehicle Sales 12674.00
Cars
12527 12375 12254 13041 11332
Car Registrations 17215.00
19611 21053 21912 22463 23438
Leading Economic Index 1.30
percent
2 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6
Internet Speed 5523.06
KBps
5668 5750 5808 5717 5205
IP Addresses 5185338.00
IP
4739817 4628945 4661637 4594931 4418810
Cement Production 1020362.00
Tonnes
1021364 1015039 1007217 999994 930844
Competitiveness Index 4.29
Points
4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.26
Competitiveness Rank 66.00
66 66 66 66 67
Capacity Utilization 78.03
percent
77.16 76.9 76.69 76.51 75.84
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
37 36 36 36 34
Corruption Rank 90.00
88 88 88 88 87
Ease of Doing Business 59.00
53 53 53 52 49
Steel Production 105.00
Thousand Tonnes
101 98.25 95.6 93.31 80.11
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -5.40
Index Points
-10 -8 -8 -9 -7
Retail Sales MoM 29.10
percent
4.88 -2.13 1.97 1.4 1.6
Retail Sales YoY -3.80
percent
1 1.2 0.7 1.5 2.3
Consumer Spending 88993.00
COP Billion
89000 89050 89100 89150 90000
Private Sector Credit 193818.46
COP Million
191819 188685 185642 182735 156572
Gasoline Prices 0.83
USD/Liter
0.85 0.88 0.9 0.91 0.87
Consumer Credit 124007.52
COP Billion
129182 132711 135950 138911 158058
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 121.75
Index Points
125 127 129 131 141
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 30.50
percent
48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2
Social Security Rate For Companies 20.50
percent
40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 96.30
mm
136 284 247 211 224
Temperature 25.45
celsius
25.08 24.65 24.74 24.61 25.32