Colombia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.70 8.8 8.5 8.5 9 8.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.66 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.25 7 7 7 7 7.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -0.91 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -1 -1.5 USD Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38.41 39.05 39.69 39.69 39.89 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 2908.40 2900 2930 3020 2990 3450 [+]
Stock Market 1448.93 1350 1340 1300 1310 1090 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.31 6.74 6.8 6.87 6.94 8 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10 1.8 2.1 2.5 3 3.4 percent [+]
GDP 292.08 275 275 275 210 450 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 136207.00 136781 137347 137903 138450 143924 COP Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 36793.00 36725 36690 36550 36625 36400 COP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 7447.88 7683 7582 7683 7654 8350 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12988.34 13145 12700 12700 13344 14096 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 8561.00 8494 8497 8441 8460 8465 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Construction 9808.00 10143 10254 10277 10407 11516 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 15069.00 15016 15035 14995 14988 14951 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 8206.00 8150 8027 8015 7963 7902 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Transport 9647.00 9701 9738 9789 9843 10536 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Utilities 4619.00 4641 4671 4701 4725 5003 COP Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70 8.8 8.5 8.5 9 8.3 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 2357.20 2390 2150 2100 2400 2300 Thousand [+]
Population 48.75 48.46 48.59 48.73 48.73 50.86 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1388415.00 1363037 1339670 1353781 1345259 1348480 COP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1167808.00 1138853 1072276 1122424 1084650 1101598 COP/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.60 64.22 64.15 64.14 64.15 64.15 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 2575100.00 2567503 2567444 2567419 2567419 2567402 COP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 800000.00 816673 816718 816730 816730 816733 COP/Month [+]
Employed Persons 21754.67 22352 22053 22635 21791 22510 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 57.40 58.33 57.89 58.13 57.99 58.04 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.66 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.47 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 137.40 138 140 142 143 160 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 140.36 142 143 145 147 165 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.84 5.93 5.82 5.83 5.83 5.83 percent [+]
Producer Prices 106.87 107 107 107 108 107 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.49 1.87 2.34 2.42 2.37 2.38 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.05 0.55 0.04 0.21 0.45 0.17 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 139.23 140 142 144 146 164 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 127.31 128 130 131 132 146 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 96.62 96.88 96.95 96.89 96.9 96.9 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.26 111 111 110 110 110 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.25 7 7 7 7 7.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.51 7.25 7 7 7 7.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 47816.91 49155 48896 48925 48930 48930 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 91484.01 92819 90952 92281 90866 92264 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 450217.74 455712 463723 471844 479941 567064 COP Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46932.87 46963 47020 47077 47132 47589 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 492048.00 629002 642356 655658 668907 811288 COP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.80 5.36 5.9 6.44 6.35 6.4 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 410771.06 415959 422570 429281 435943 506450 COP Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 154378.50 153520 155359 153584 155238 154056 COP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -0.91 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -1 -1.5 USD Billion [+]
Exports 3.21 2.7 2.5 3 3.2 3.3 USD Billion [+]
Imports 4.12 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.6 USD Billion [+]
Current Account -2555.00 -3100 -2900 -2800 -2650 -2500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -6.50 -5.7 -5.3 -5.1 -4.9 -5 percent [+]
External Debt 120692.36 121183 129019 124563 126805 126081 COP Billion [+]
Capital Flows -2321.86 -2646 -2643 -2460 -2536 -2534 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3053.79 2959 2984 3062 3059 3109 USD Million [+]
Remittances 457.20 448 442 442 443 443 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 5.76 6.97 7.48 7.78 7.99 8.31 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 895.00 892 892 892 892 892 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terms Of Trade 124.85 142 140 136 138 137 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 5.95 6.1 6.04 5.97 6.02 6.5 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.00 38.41 39.05 39.69 39.69 39.89 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.00 -3.3 -3.31 -3.3 -3.62 -3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1257.91 -2874 -3273 -2925 -2907 -2959 COP Billion [+]
Government Spending 11596.31 14475 13178 13713 13465 13543 COP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 10338.39 10559 9991 10057 10244 10174 COP Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 11596.31 14472 13182 13712 13467 13544 COP Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 12945.40 12651 12843 13035 13114 14452 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence -8.50 -4.4 -4.16 -4.3 -4.34 -4.31 [+]
Industrial Production 4.80 1.28 0.9 0.81 0.79 0.79 percent [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 13676.00 13630 13377 13357 13343 13341 Cars [+]
Car Registrations 21022.00 18944 20973 21138 20774 20835 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.10 1.7 2.25 2.66 2.97 3.81 percent [+]
Steel Production 100.00 102 103 103 103 103 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 976914.00 991236 1011898 1022681 1016317 1016850 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.30 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.32 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 61.00 60 60 60 62 62 [+]
Capacity Utilization 73.50 74.36 74.45 74.43 74.43 74.43 percent [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 37 37 36 36 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 89 91 92 94 92 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 53.00 49 48 47 47 45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.80 -16.21 -17.37 5.71 -17.11 -17.06 percent [+]
Retail Sales MoM -7.60 -4.9 2.06 1.28 2.08 2.02 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.90 -0.57 -1.03 -1.07 -1.03 -1.01 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 88182.00 88320 88405 88352 88436 88651 COP Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 197193.79 200646 198690 197843 197299 196473 COP Million [+]
Consumer Credit 115564.37 118439 121228 123952 126612 152028 COP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.72 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 115.79 120 122 124 126 145 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25.4 25.61 25.82 25.74 25.56 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 32.99 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.20 48.28 48.27 48.26 48.28 48.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.20 39.53 40.2 40.87 40.73 39.69 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8.3 8.07 7.84 7.86 7.9 percent [+]