Colombia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Colombian economy is set to improve modestly in 2017 boosted by supportive fiscal and monetary policy and stronger external demand. Government spending growth is expected to accelerate as the implementation of further 4G road infrastructure programmes continues, including the start of the Autopista Norte motorway in Bogota. The oil sector will regain steam due to slightly higher oil prices and investment and consumer spending are seen improving amid lower borrowing cost and slowing inflation. Main risks include global uncertainty regarding trade and delays in infrastructure programmes. This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.9 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.5 9.7 9.8 10 8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.87 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.25 5 4.5 4.25 4.25 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -0.69 -0.8 -0.7 -1 -0.9 -1 USD Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 45 45 42 42 43 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 2913.70 2915 2886 2856 2827 2503 [+]
Stock Market 1483.90 1450 1440 1420 1410 1250 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.57 6.55 6.62 6.68 6.75 7.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.9 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 2 2 2.3 2.2 3 percent [+]
GDP 282.46 315 315 345 345 375 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 137102.00 137704 138264 139069 139754 147245 COP Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37175.00 36690 36950 36825 36825 39400 COP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 7525.90 7650 7650 7790 7790 8150 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13124.30 12700 12700 13000 13000 13900 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 8498.00 8508 8450 8468 8468 9000 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Construction 10007.00 10167 10195 10207 10320 10516 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 14855.00 14888 14806 14766 14762 14667 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 8266.00 8140 7980 7960 8050 8320 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Transport 9614.00 9657 9675 9711 9755 10332 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Utilities 4596.00 4670 4700 4725 4749 5002 COP Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.5 9.7 9.8 10 8 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 2364.45 2150 2100 2400 2400 2300 Thousand [+]
Population 48.75 48.59 48.9 49.7 50.3 51.5 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1388415.00 1339670 1353781 1345259 1350406 1348480 COP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1167808.00 1072276 1122424 1084650 1113103 1101598 COP/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.70 63.97 64.35 64.19 64.2 65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 2575100.00 2567503 2567444 2567419 2567409 2567402 COP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 800000.00 816718 816730 816732 816733 816733 COP/Month [+]
Employed Persons 22073.00 22093 22390 22262 22322 22302 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 57.52 57.64 58.41 58.06 58.23 58.17 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.87 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.14 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 137.99 138 139 139 139 139 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 141.31 142 142 142 142 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.00 4.89 4.77 4.78 4.84 5.47 percent [+]
Producer Prices 107.70 108 108 107 108 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.69 2.68 4.24 4.85 5.44 9.47 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.52 0.1 0.65 0.45 0.63 2 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 140.72 141 142 143 143 145 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 127.61 128 128 128 127 126 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.83 98.41 98.16 98.04 97.92 96.74 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.96 113 113 113 113 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 5.25 5 4.5 4.25 4.25 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.26 6 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 50528.63 49313 49284 49320 49307 49310 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 93573.94 93560 95209 93943 95250 95231 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 455912.03 460354 468158 475694 483246 556970 COP Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47565.92 47723 47939 48121 48291 49640 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 492048.00 642356 655658 668907 682105 811288 COP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.80 5.9 6.44 6.35 6.26 6.4 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 418156.34 421969 428708 435289 441833 504947 COP Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 161118.20 162013 161813 161848 161804 161821 COP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -0.69 -0.8 -0.7 -1 -0.9 -1 USD Billion [+]
Exports 3.07 2.5 3 3.2 3.2 3.3 USD Billion [+]
Imports 3.75 3.8 3.5 3.7 4 2.6 USD Billion [+]
Current Account -2708.00 -2900 -2800 -2650 -2650 -2500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4.3 -4.3 -4.4 -4.2 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 123920.07 123783 119806 123104 120382 121433 COP Billion [+]
Capital Flows -2587.79 -2776 -2611 -2736 -2741 -2709 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2515.13 2792 2838 2850 2879 2944 USD Million [+]
Remittances 488.00 459 465 468 469 469 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 5.76 6.18 6.44 6.67 6.9 7.76 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 804.00 819 819 819 819 819 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terms Of Trade 125.74 126 124 123 122 115 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 5.95 6.04 5.97 6.02 6.07 6.5 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 45 45 42 42 43 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.00 -3.31 -3.3 -3.62 -3.76 -3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -2705.60 207 296 -220 -185 -123 COP Billion [+]
Government Spending 24181.00 25000 25000 25000 26000 28000 COP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 13549.90 13666 13839 13844 13702 13750 COP Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 16255.49 12760 13898 13366 13696 13584 COP Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 9930.40 9895 10011 10058 10104 10763 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence -5.90 -5.4 -4.9 -4.7 -4.5 2 [+]
Industrial Production 6.20 -2.5 -3.5 3.1 2.5 1.2 percent [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 11137.00 12797 13057 12542 12519 12508 Cars [+]
Car Registrations 18607.00 18980 19000 19206 19162 19160 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.40 1.4 1.8 2 2.4 1.47 percent [+]
Steel Production 85.00 96.73 101 99.53 99.81 99.82 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 1077344.00 1029053 1044424 1034713 1035076 1036184 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.30 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.32 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 61.00 60 60 61 62 62 [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.35 75.4 75.29 75.39 75.29 75.29 percent [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 37 36 36 36 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 91 92 94 96 92 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 53.00 48 47 47 47 45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -15.90 -11.58 5.71 6 9 12 percent [+]
Retail Sales MoM 4.50 0.64 1.22 1.8 1.92 1.86 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.10 0 -0.02 1 1.2 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 88383.00 88649 88566 88789 88860 89540 COP Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 257070.55 249525 254126 255788 256863 258560 COP Million [+]
Consumer Credit 119413.07 121506 124371 127175 129917 154255 COP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.78 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.8 0.77 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 117.89 122 124 126 128 145 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 33 33 33 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 33 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.20 48.27 48.26 48.28 48.29 48.43 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.20 40.2 40.87 40.73 40.58 39.69 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8.07 7.84 7.86 7.88 7.9 percent [+]