Colombia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.12 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 5 5 5 5 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -0.45 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 USD Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 46 46 46 46 47 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3012.00 2910 2880 2850 2824 2500 [+]
Stock Market 1470.12 1470 1450 1440 1420 1260 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.60 6.55 6.62 6.68 6.75 7.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 2 2.4 2.5 2.4 3 percent [+]
GDP 282.46 315 345 345 345 375 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 138021.00 138237 138899 139293 139564 140001 COP Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 36966.00 37000 38000 38000 39000 43000 COP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 7525.90 7650 7790 7790 7660 8150 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13124.30 12700 13000 13000 13297 13900 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 8762.00 8700 8750 8800 8850 8995 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Construction 10004.00 9900 9950 10000 10050 10150 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 14974.00 14857 14832 14834 14770 14555 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 8434.00 7980 7960 8050 8120 8320 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Transport 9644.00 9622 9615 9605 9585 9362 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Utilities 4667.00 4700 4725 4749 4774 5002 COP Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 2159.53 2200 2250 2300 2200 2000 Thousand [+]
Population 48.75 48.9 49.7 50.3 49.6 51.5 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.20 64.35 63.93 63.78 63.65 65 percent [+]
Employed Persons 22397.00 22504 22419 22416 22373 22127 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.95 59.04 58.43 58.28 58 56.59 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 2499200.00 2506189 2508409 2509519 2510628 2508499 COP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 830100.00 836173 830681 827936 825190 826418 COP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1098000.00 1125184 1135761 1141049 1146337 1135353 COP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 776200.00 770124 775990 778923 781856 780462 COP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.12 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.18 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 138.32 139 139 139 139 139 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 141.58 142 142 142 142 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.73 4.61 4.58 4.64 4.72 5.36 percent [+]
Producer Prices 110.76 109 109 109 110 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.51 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 percent [+]
Import Prices 115.09 114 114 114 114 113 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 141.94 141 141 142 142 150 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 128.09 128 129 129 129 128 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 106.35 102 102 102 102 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.39 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 5 5 5 5 5.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.76 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 49985.40 50001 49948 49914 49880 49568 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 94805.39 94363 94303 94239 94187 93711 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 455392.83 455226 456088 456303 456277 454527 COP Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47407.84 47549 47535 47504 47468 47090 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.80 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 168860.40 169189 168934 168608 168270 165280 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 417643.27 417001 417447 417458 417338 415541 COP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -0.45 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 USD Billion [+]
Exports 3.13 5 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.6 USD Billion [+]
Imports 3.73 3.7 4 4.1 3.9 4 USD Billion [+]
Current Account -2708.00 -2800 -2700 -2700 -2650 -2550 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 124770.03 116769 110722 104978 99546 62203 COP Billion [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2685.00 2607 2543 2527 2494 2286 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2587.79 -2710 -2742 -2669 -2661 -2468 USD Million [+]
Remittances 521.70 480 485 485 490 540 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 5.76 6.7 7.04 7.36 7.62 8.45 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 804.00 811 809 808 806 791 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terms Of Trade 130.43 130 128 127 125 118 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 5.60 6 6 6 6 6 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 46 46 46 46 47 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.00 -5 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 2541.11 -475 -664 -710 -666 -666 COP Billion [+]
Government Spending 24536.00 25000 26000 26000 26000 28000 COP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 17557.11 14014 13817 13579 13467 12112 COP Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 15016.00 14591 14914 14770 14706 14064 COP Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 9930.40 9708 9718 9728 9739 9724 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence -8.70 -4.9 -4.7 -4.5 -3.43 2 [+]
Industrial Production -1.90 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 3.4 percent [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 14928.00 13057 13441 13232 13076 12046 Cars [+]
Car Registrations 19297.00 19000 22696 23173 23433 23756 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 1.4 2 2.4 2.6 2.6 percent [+]
Internet Speed 5523.06 5804 5668 5750 5808 5408 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 5185338.00 4670618 4739817 4628945 4661637 4469208 IP [+]
Cement Production 1082276.01 1046842 1040348 1033061 1024921 965286 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.29 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 66.00 66 66 66 66 69 [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.15 76.68 76.49 76.34 76.22 75.7 percent [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 36 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 89 88 88 88 87 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 59.00 53 53 53 52 51 [+]
Steel Production 110.00 103 99.63 96.92 94.39 82.03 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.60 -12 -10 -8 -8 -7 percent [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.30 2.01 3.05 1.97 2.04 1.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.40 1 1 1.2 0.7 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 88993.00 88800 89000 89050 89100 90000 COP Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 221300.29 218924 214555 210443 206512 178053 COP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.71 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Credit 121318.19 123458 125539 127392 129033 136468 COP Billion [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 119.30 122 124 125 126 133 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 33 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.20 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.20 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 96.00 219 219 219 219 219 mm [+]
Temperature 25.00 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 celsius [+]