Colombia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.9 0.8 0.9 1 1.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.20 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 percent
Balance of Trade -0.83 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 USD Billion
Government Debt to GDP 48.50 50 50 52 52 53 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 2880.85
2981 3055 3131 3209 3541
Stock Market 1547.34
points
1521 1482 1444 1406 1267
Government Bond 10Y 6.67
percent
6.76 6.97 7.19 7.42 8.39
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.9 0.8 0.9 1 1.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20
percent
2.6 2.6 2.8 3 3.2
GDP 309.19
USD Billion
345 345 370 370 375
GDP Constant Prices 199578.81
COP Billion
210779 233303 205167 210511 248714
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37239.00
COP Billion
37447 38207 38282 38250 40731
GDP per capita 7600.76
USD
7790 7790 8400 8400 8600
GDP per capita PPP 13254.95
USD
13346 13285 13530 13530 13900
Gdp From Agriculture 13252.00
COP Billion
13135 13621 13623 13116 14521
Gdp From Construction 12157.00
COP Billion
15207 16670 12497 14523 17772
Gdp From Manufacturing 23842.00
COP Billion
26017 27108 24510 25044 28899
Gdp From Mining 10333.00
COP Billion
11198 11797 10622 11277 12576
Gdp From Transport 9671.00
COP Billion
9888 9922 9942 9964 10578
Gdp From Utilities 6048.00
COP Billion
6418 6567 6217 6239 7001
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent
9.7 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4
Unemployed Persons 2419.96
Thousand
3200 3200 3200 2390 3350
Population 49.29
Million
49.69 49.69 50.1 50.1 50.6
Wages High Skilled 2499200.00
COP/Month
2502030 2502030 2480000 2480000 2508498
Wages Low Skilled 830100.00
COP/Month
828000 828000 834000 834000 850000
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.30
percent
63.87 64.5 63.89 63.89 65
Living Wage Family 1098000.00
COP/Month
1140660 1140660 1135353 1135353 1130701
Living Wage Individual 776200.00
COP/Month
778923 778923 781232 781232 779976
Employed Persons 22451.22
Thousand
22205 22254 22232 22243 22239
Employment Rate 57.87
percent
57.32 57.48 57.39 57.44 57.42
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20
percent
3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.15
percent
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 142.28
Index Points
142 143 146 147 153
Core Consumer Prices 146.18
Index Points
146 147 150 151 157
Core Inflation Rate 3.58
percent
3.34 3.2 3.14 3.1 3.07
Producer Prices 113.72
Index Points
116 120 119 121 137
Food Inflation 1.70
percent
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6
Producer Prices Change 7.42
percent
7.1 7.7 6.8 6.7 7
CPI Housing Utilities 145.60
Index Points
146 147 148 150 157
CPI Transportation 133.01
Index Points
132 134 136 137 142
Export Prices 110.28
Index Points
109 109 109 109 109
Import Prices 113.73
Index Points
113 114 114 114 114
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5
Interbank Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5
Money Supply M0 53627.65
COP Billion
53610 53337 53401 53375 53381
Money Supply M1 98935.18
COP Billion
99054 99045 99046 99046 99046
Money Supply M3 471565.30
COP Billion
481503 487746 493793 499824 557785
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47491.08
USD Million
47440 47387 47369 47354 47339
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00
percent
6 6 6 6.25 6.25
Money Supply M2 432300.10
COP Billion
441334 446742 451962 457144 506261
Central Bank Balance Sheet 161095.00
COP Billion
160467 160362 160445 160378 160405
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -0.83
USD Billion
-0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6
Exports 3.68
USD Billion
12 9 10.1 3.65 7.4
Imports 4.51
USD Billion
-3.7 3.5 4.7 5.3 4.2
Current Account -2831.00
USD Million
-2450 -1800 -2000 -2418 -2500
Current Account to GDP -3.30
percent
-4.2 -4.2 -4.1 -4.1 -3.5
External Debt 127321.09
COP Billion
127522 127481 127500 127491 127494
Foreign Direct Investment 2133.11
USD Million
3288 3118 3201 3230 3228
Capital Flows -2579.83
USD Million
-2215 -2052 -2313 -2192 -2194
Remittances 453.20
USD Million
490 490 472 472 540
Gold Reserves 12.80
Tonnes
12.93 12.98 13.09 13.08 13.09
Crude Oil Production 769.00
BBL/D/1K
767 759 751 744 705
Terms Of Trade 139.07
Index Points
95.79 96.02 96.01 96.01 96
Terrorism Index 5.60
6 6 5.9 5.9 5.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.50
percent
50 50 52 52 53
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP
-3.8 -3.8 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7
Government Budget Value -2486.47
COP Billion
-1800 -1981 -2244 -2015 -2073
Government Spending 33269.24
COP Billion
25094 25621 34201 25408 27314
Government Revenues 14311.11
COP Billion
13145 12873 12762 12803 12809
Fiscal Expenditure 16797.58
COP Billion
14945 14783 15006 14818 14881
Military Expenditure 8976.14
USD Million
9305 9305 9395 9395 9400
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 0.50
Index Points
0.6 2 3 3.3 3.5
Industrial Production 2.90
percent
-0.6 1.7 -0.4 7.24 2.8
Total Vehicle Sales 12694.00
Cars
12526 13041 12436 12427 12421
Car Registrations 18293.00
18744 18750 18751 18751 18751
Leading Economic Index 3.50
percent
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8
Internet Speed 5523.06
KBps
6141 6262 6367 6509 7796
IP Addresses 5185338.00
IP
4766838 4579935 4693934 4548981 4532621
Steel Production 95.00
Thousand Tonnes
103 102 102 102 102
Cement Production 1006914.00
Tonnes
1110000 1150000 1120000 1100000 1300000
Competitiveness Index 4.29
Points
4.28 4.28 4.3 4.3 4.2
Competitiveness Rank 66.00
66 66 68 68 67
Capacity Utilization 79.60
percent
78.88 78.86 78.85 78.85 78.85
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
37 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 96.00
88 88 95 95 99
Ease of Doing Business 59.00
62 62 64 64 65
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 15.50
Index Points
23 28 28 29 28
Retail Sales MoM 3.90
percent
1.5 1.7 -15 1.75 1.6
Retail Sales YoY 5.90
percent
1.3 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.1
Consumer Spending 144206.27
COP Billion
90150 91419 148244 91270 97457
Private Sector Credit 252373.34
COP Million
248285 250432 251662 252399 253552
Consumer Credit 126598.98
COP Billion
130363 132497 134577 136604 154245
Households Debt To Gdp 26.32
Percent
26.14 26.13 26.08 26.08 25.94
Gasoline Prices 0.83
USD/Liter
0.79 0.74 0.7 0.66 0.37
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 125.42
Index Points
129 131 133 135 152
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 30.50
percent
30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 20.50
percent
20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 96.30
mm
247 211 136 200 224
Temperature 25.45
celsius
24.74 24.61 25.13 25.35 25.32