Colombia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.40 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.6 9.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.13 3.3 3.2 3 3.2 3.3 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4 4 4 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade -0.56 12 7.85 5.5 5.3 3.2 USD Billion
Government Debt to GDP 48.50 46 46 45 45 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 2901.60
2844 2909 2975 3042 3328
Stock Market 1516.71
points
1457 1423 1389 1356 1232
Government Bond 10Y 6.72
percent
6.75 6.97 7.2 7.44 8.46
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20
percent
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 3
GDP 282.46
USD Billion
345 345 345 370 375
GDP Constant Prices 199578.81
COP Billion
139236 140377 142446 140052 150828
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37239.00
COP Billion
37600 37447 38170 37670 40416
GDP per capita 7525.90
USD
7790 7790 7790 8070 8150
GDP per capita PPP 13124.30
USD
13000 13285 13000 13730 13900
Gdp From Agriculture 13252.00
COP Billion
8624 8941 8863 8915 9385
Gdp From Construction 12157.00
COP Billion
10126 10127 10243 10145 10846
Gdp From Manufacturing 23842.00
COP Billion
15137 15211 15398 15564 16304
Gdp From Mining 10333.00
COP Billion
8443 8606 8624 8459 9132
Gdp From Transport 9671.00
COP Billion
9795 9888 9913 9887 10496
Gdp From Utilities 6048.00
COP Billion
4653 4691 4790 4729 5072
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.40
percent
10.8 10.7 10.8 10.6 9.4
Unemployed Persons 2298.69
Thousand
2900 3200 3200 3200 3350
Population 49.29
Million
50.3 49.14 50 49.41 51.5
Wages High Skilled 2499200.00
COP/Month
2502030 2502030 2502030 2502030 2508498
Wages Low Skilled 830100.00
COP/Month
840000 840000 840000 840000 850000
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.30
percent
64.64 64.51 64.5 64.48 65
Living Wage Family 1098000.00
COP/Month
1098000 1098000 1098000 1135353 1098000
Living Wage Individual 776200.00
COP/Month
776200 776200 776200 776200 776200
Employed Persons 22062.27
Thousand
22773 22391 22697 22445 22596
Employment Rate 56.99
percent
57.87 57.39 57.67 57.51 57.57
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.13
percent
3.3 3.2 3 3.2 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.46
percent
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 141.70
Index Points
142 143 144 146 153
Core Consumer Prices 145.26
Index Points
147 148 150 152 165
Core Inflation Rate 3.80
percent
4.27 4.6 4.89 5.07 5.01
Producer Prices 111.41
Index Points
109 111 114 115 121
Food Inflation 1.52
percent
2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.3
Producer Prices Change 4.25
percent
3.3 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.5
CPI Housing Utilities 144.84
Index Points
145 146 147 148 157
CPI Transportation 132.05
Index Points
132 132 134 135 142
Export Prices 104.46
Index Points
104 103 103 102 101
Import Prices 111.76
Index Points
113 114 114 113 114
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4 4 4 3.5
Interbank Rate 4.21
percent
4.22 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.47
Money Supply M0 51921.64
COP Billion
52093 51205 51502 51751 51735
Money Supply M1 98209.34
COP Billion
95910 96257 96280 96219 96237
Money Supply M3 471682.28
COP Billion
462237 458381 458316 458855 459004
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47502.63
USD Million
47362 47452 47341 47418 47383
Deposit Interest Rate 6.80
percent
6.3 6.05 6.05 6.05 5.55
Money Supply M2 435891.21
COP Billion
444000 451058 457979 464847 537451
Central Bank Balance Sheet 161095.00
COP Billion
163627 162297 161886 162498 162293
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -0.56
USD Billion
12 7.85 5.5 5.3 3.2
Exports 3.34
USD Billion
14 12 9 10.1 7.4
Imports 3.91
USD Billion
-10 -3.7 3.5 4.8 4.2
Current Account -1901.00
USD Million
-2300 -2450 -1800 -2000 -2500
Current Account to GDP -3.30
percent
-4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 -3.5
External Debt 124375.02
COP Billion
123316 123303 123212 123198 123252
Foreign Direct Investment 3848.24
USD Million
3911 4118 3952 4085 4021
Capital Flows -1715.68
USD Million
-2044 -2210 -2127 -2169 -2155
Remittances 453.20
USD Million
485 490 490 475 540
Gold Reserves 11.70
Tonnes
8.04 7.61 7.56 7.55 7.55
Crude Oil Production 854.00
BBL/D/1K
830 828 826 824 805
Terms Of Trade 134.29
Index Points
91.78 90.13 89.63 90.1 88.88
Terrorism Index 5.60
6 6 6 5.92 6
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 48.50
percent
46 46 45 45 47
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP
-3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -4.07 -3.7
Government Budget Value -4811.54
COP Billion
1008 -1781 -2157 -2454 -2123
Government Spending 24972.00
COP Billion
24976 25094 25596 25189 27102
Government Revenues 10476.21
COP Billion
12772 12351 12232 12318 12310
Fiscal Expenditure 15287.75
COP Billion
11764 14132 14969 14772 14433
Military Expenditure 8976.14
USD Million
9853 9958 10064 10115 11172
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 0.20
Index Points
1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 2
Industrial Production -1.40
percent
1.5 2.2 1.7 -0.4 2.8
Total Vehicle Sales 13457.00
Cars
14769 13686 13041 13702 13336
Car Registrations 18293.00
19359 18604 18187 18800 18735
Leading Economic Index 0.60
percent
2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.6
Internet Speed 5523.06
KBps
5953 6141 6262 6367 7796
IP Addresses 5185338.00
IP
4629415 4766838 4579935 4693934 4532621
Steel Production 125.00
Thousand Tonnes
103 101 101 101 101
Cement Production 1061713.00
Tonnes
952289 965742 965168 963153 963823
Competitiveness Index 4.29
Points
4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29
Competitiveness Rank 66.00
63 63 63 63 63
Capacity Utilization 75.82
percent
76.89 76.68 76.51 76.36 75.73
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
36 36 36 36 35
Corruption Rank 96.00
88 88 88 100 87
Ease of Doing Business 59.00
53 53 52 53 49
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 1.50
Index Points
-9.3 -10 -11 -13 -7
Retail Sales MoM 11.30
percent
-8 1.5 1.7 -15 1.6
Retail Sales YoY 5.50
percent
-0.3 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.3
Consumer Spending 89102.00
COP Billion
89720 90150 91330 90655 96703
Private Sector Credit 200035.05
COP Million
214030 213774 213688 213632 213541
Consumer Credit 125065.72
COP Billion
127648 129521 131340 133107 149500
Households Debt To Gdp 26.34
Percent
26.07 25.94 25.8 25.66 24.03
Gasoline Prices 0.85
USD/Liter
0.77 0.72 0.68 0.64 0.45
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 122.84
Index Points
121 121 121 121 121
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 37 34
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 30.50
percent
30.5 30.5 30.5 31 48.2
Social Security Rate For Companies 20.50
percent
40.2 40.2 40.2 20.5 40.2
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.00
percent
8 8 8 10 8
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 96.30
mm
284 247 211 136 224
Temperature 25.45
celsius
24.65 24.74 24.61 25.13 25.32