Colombia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Colombia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Colombia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.7 9.4 9.6 10.2 9.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.97 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.25 5 5 5 5 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1.12 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 USD Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 46 46 46 46 47 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 2951.80 2910 2880 2850 2824 2500 [+]
Stock Market 1460.36 1470 1450 1440 1420 1260 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.53 6.55 6.62 6.68 6.75 7.46 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 2 2.3 2.2 2.2 3 percent [+]
GDP 282.46 315 345 345 345 375 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 137102.00 137530 137919 138004 138112 136858 COP Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37175.00 37000 38000 38000 39000 43000 COP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 7525.90 7650 7790 7790 7660 8150 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13124.30 12700 13000 13000 13297 13900 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 8498.00 8463 8461 8457 8452 9000 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Construction 10007.00 9858 10207 10320 10506 10516 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 14855.00 14776 14720 14697 14635 14376 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 8266.00 7980 7960 8050 8120 8320 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Transport 9614.00 9596 9576 9557 9531 9258 COP Billion [+]
Gdp From Utilities 4596.00 4700 4725 4749 4774 5002 COP Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.7 9.4 9.6 10.2 9.4 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 2254.37 2200 2100 2300 2200 2000 Thousand [+]
Population 48.75 48.9 49.7 50.3 49.6 51.5 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 1388415.00 1353781 1345259 1350406 1347298 1348480 COP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1167808.00 1122424 1084650 1113103 1091671 1101598 COP/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.50 64.35 63.88 63.75 63.61 65 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 2575100.00 2549828 2547804 2546136 2544763 2539463 COP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 800000.00 816730 816732 816733 816733 816733 COP/Month [+]
Employed Persons 22518.00 22441 22292 22321 22262 22020 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 58.61 58.13 57.65 57.54 57.29 56.14 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.97 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.04 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 138.05 138 138 138 138 137 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 141.46 142 142 142 142 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.87 4.74 4.74 4.8 4.88 5.45 percent [+]
Producer Prices 108.17 108 108 108 107 106 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.22 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.19 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 1 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 141.21 142 143 144 145 147 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 127.80 128 128 128 128 127 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 100.18 99.8 99.71 99.59 99.47 98.41 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.25 113 113 113 113 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 5.25 5 5 5 5 5.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.27 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.48 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 49868.40 49875 49819 49786 49751 49439 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 93243.75 93370 93292 93239 93185 92703 COP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 453111.74 455546 455721 455693 455567 453700 COP Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47514.56 47549 47535 47504 47468 47090 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 492048.00 562809 562250 561499 560603 549853 COP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.80 7.42 7.55 7.68 7.81 9.55 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 416699.18 419440 419765 419804 419710 417912 COP Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 163247.00 162612 162257 161907 161559 158475 COP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1.12 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 USD Billion [+]
Exports 3.07 3 3.2 3.2 3 3.3 USD Billion [+]
Imports 4.19 3.7 4 4.1 3.9 4 USD Billion [+]
Current Account -2708.00 -2800 -2650 -2650 -2554 -2500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.40 -4.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 120740.69 104289 96698 89682 83198 43060 COP Billion [+]
Capital Flows -2587.79 -2566 -2565 -2532 -2507 -2331 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2685.00 2571 2512 2493 2460 2265 USD Million [+]
Remittances 482.30 473 466 459 453 420 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 5.76 6.7 7.04 7.36 7.62 8.45 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 804.00 811 809 808 806 791 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terms Of Trade 125.74 124 123 122 121 115 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 5.95 6 6 6 6 6 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.60 46 46 46 46 47 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.00 -5 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1072.19 -877 -820 -728 -692 -670 COP Billion [+]
Government Spending 24685.00 25000 26000 26000 26000 28000 COP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 12174.34 12280 12034 11841 11660 10167 COP Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 13246.53 14444 14742 14585 14515 13828 COP Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 9930.40 9708 9718 9728 9739 9724 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence -1.90 -4.9 -4.7 -4.5 -1.22 2 [+]
Industrial Production -3.10 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 percent [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 13350.00 13057 12741 12574 12450 11652 Cars [+]
Car Registrations 20901.00 19000 23039 23397 23592 23822 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.60 1.8 2 2.4 2.6 2.6 percent [+]
Steel Production 110.00 98.78 95.77 93.53 91.35 80.79 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 1034804.00 1026871 1020038 1011819 1004346 947505 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.29 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.26 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 66.00 66 66 66 66 69 [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.60 76.68 76.49 76.34 76.21 75.7 percent [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 36 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 90.00 89 88 88 88 87 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 53.00 47 47 47 47 45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -10.30 -12 -10 -8 -8 -7 percent [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.70 2.58 2.32 1.91 1.97 1.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -1.20 1 1 1.2 0.7 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 88383.00 88548 88548 88538 88393 86244 COP Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 227109.16 224118 219611 215293 211163 181235 COP Million [+]
Consumer Credit 120283.31 123458 125539 127392 129033 136468 COP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.79 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.82 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 119.30 122 124 125 126 133 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 33 33 33 33 33 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.20 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 40.20 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]