Chile Slashes 2025 Copper Growth Forecast on Mine Disruptions

2025-08-13 23:20 By Farida Husna 1 min. read

Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, cut its 2025 output growth forecast to 1.5% from 3% previously, citing a June production drop at BHP’s Escondida mine and Collahuasi.

Production in the world’s top copper exporter is still expected to reach 5.58 million metric tons this year, with average copper prices for 2025–2026 maintained at $4.30/lb.

Cochilco warned the June decline was “a turning point” and that a deadly collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente mine could pose a “significant risk of supply disruption.” For 2026, it kept growth at 3% but lowered output estimates to 5.75 million tons.

Globally, prices are expected to stay high due to limited concentrate supply and strong demand, especially from China and other emerging economies, with demand for refined copper set to hit 27 million tons in 2026.

China is projected to consume 15.7 million tons in 2025, while India’s demand is expected to rise 7.5%, driven by industrialization and the energy transition.



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