Retail trade in Bulgaria increased 0.6 percent from a year earlier in March of 2019, up from a 0.1 percent fall in the previous month. Retail sales rose faster for non-food products (6.4 percent from 4.9 percent in February), namely textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (11 percent from 7.6 percent); computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment (11.8 percent from 3 percent) and information and communication equipment; other household equipment (except textiles); cultural and recreation goods, etc. (11.2 percent from 7.4 percent). Meanwhile, retail sales of automotive fuel (12.8 percent from 13.2 percent) slowed and those of food, beverages & tobacco (-8.5 percent from -7.9 percent) fell further. Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria averaged 7.04 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.60 percent in March of 2007 and a record low of -12.50 percent in January of 2010.
Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria to stand at 4.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Bulgaria Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.