Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.80 7.4 8.4 8 7.9 7.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -236.80 -442 -287 -374 -331 -347 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 27.10 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.4 25.7 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.67 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.79 1.98 [+]
Stock Market 711.64 704 697 690 683 604 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.75 1.98 2 2.02 2.04 2.25 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.50 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
GDP 52.40 51.87 58.14 51.03 50.31 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17650.01 23099 23451 18091 21032 23361 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3330.97 4628 5078 3498 4877 4952 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7929.49 8076 8155 8197 8238 8567 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17709.08 18028 18219 18324 18430 19295 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 430.96 1526 742 463 765 762 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 690.19 1073 703 705 920 748 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 4454.22 5040 4654 4554 4898 4714 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2886.20 2795 3550 3013 2918 3541 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 3246.97 4295 4312 4310 4310 4310 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 7.4 8.4 8 7.9 7.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3036.70 3102 3059 3078 3131 3126 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 224.17 212 214 217 217 217 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.42 3.29 3.24 3.06 2.23 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.60 11.25 10.5 9.92 9.27 6.59 percent [+]
Labour Costs 146.97 150 150 150 150 150 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 18466.00 18953 19241 21022 20128 19888 [+]
Wages 1036.00 1027 1026 1026 1026 1026 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 235.20 236 230 244 251 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.10 7.1 7.1 7.06 7.06 6.97 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 60.44 60.44 60.05 59.92 59.59 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.00 63.67 63.67 63.54 63.5 63.62 [+]
Productivity 101.80 114 114 114 114 114 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 64.40 57.08 59.8 62.28 60.4 60.23 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.70 53.83 53.08 53.75 54.31 53.47 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1001.50 1019 1019 1019 1019 1019 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 766.60 791 787 789 788 788 BGN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1112 1111 1111 1111 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 913.00 931 948 966 983 1146 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 606 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2902.90 2977 2931 2944 3000 2992 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.45 0.1 0.14 0.27 0.18 percent [+]
Employment Rate 50.00 51.13 50.49 51 51.95 52.04 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.35 99.42 99.43 99.45 99.46 99.48 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6582.98 6579 6581 6583 6584 6588 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.22 97.58 97.24 97.05 96.85 94.34 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.50 -0.37 -0.33 -0.28 -0.26 -0.27 percent [+]
Producer Prices 109.10 112 114 116 116 129 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 103.20 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 105.10 105 105 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.90 6.5 4.9 3.6 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 14345.10 14411 14491 14572 14654 15450 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 7328.71 7273 7271 7271 7271 7271 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.20 10.68 16.43 19.97 21.88 23.71 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 12751.80 12823 12845 12862 12871 12878 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 42035.30 43406 44399 45377 46342 55309 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 80314.40 81622 82639 83629 84589 92802 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 80392.20 81700 82715 83704 84662 92853 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46881.58 47368 47912 48457 49000 54402 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.20 0.8 0.69 0.74 0.8 1.14 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 31016209.00 31197422 31304160 31395936 31474901 31853418 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7927.55 7896 7889 7893 7889 7889 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -236.80 -442 -287 -374 -331 -347 BGN Million [+]
Exports 4450.70 4462 4394 4426 4387 4393 BGN Million [+]
Imports 4687.50 4567 4609 4613 4603 4605 BGN Million [+]
Current Account 210.60 80.58 64.14 87.74 82.08 81.76 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.2 2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 34112.30 33781 33720 33681 33663 33642 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 321.60 128 137 138 138 138 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 77.50 71.99 71.93 74.16 74.25 73.68 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1448580.00 0 979385 1030214 1090473 1070582 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.33 40.36 40.38 40.39 40.41 40.55 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 0.87 0.48 0.32 0.16 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 18.63 15.41 16.27 17.14 23.7 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 26.80 -1.42 -2.99 -2.91 -2.95 -2.94 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 27.10 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.4 25.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 -0.17 -2.1 -0.28 -0.89 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 134.18 923540 1044260 977707 943148 950698 BGN THO [+]
Government Spending to GDP 35.50 35.2 34.66 35.23 35.81 39.06 percent [+]
Government Debt 13459.10 13724 13902 14070 14231 15480 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 756.30 718 758 779 801 953 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 1740.02 1854 2295 1842 1937 2232 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 200.00 1171 996 887 938 951 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 27.30 27.84 27.68 27.74 27.71 27.72 [+]
Industrial Production 9.60 8.04 1.7 8.15 8.16 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.70 -0.06 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 13.50 11.58 11.35 11.04 11.34 11.23 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.60 75.67 75.77 75.62 75.53 75.55 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 350.37 322 349 348 345 345 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 61.00 58.61 59.19 59.37 59.31 59.29 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 6.10 -0.18 -0.15 -0.22 -0.32 -0.47 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.36 4.36 4.33 4.32 4.28 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 47 47 51 52 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 40 40 45 50 59 [+]
Electricity Production 3259.00 3960 3878 3843 3864 3860 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 43 44 43 42 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 73 74 75 75 75 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -27.00 -27.71 -26.79 -27.39 -27.63 -27.28 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 0.47 0.6 0.48 0.48 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.20 6.22 3.4 6.37 6.37 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 19128.39 19600 19923 20223 20500 22358 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.16 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 36.85 36.54 35.75 35.51 35.28 32.69 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 15456.19 15462 17149 15469 17143 17113 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 12.00 -2.2 -0.2 8.34 8.36 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 112.49 127 131 133 134 135 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 720.00 814 734 601 823 758 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 82.08 82.2 82.19 82.18 82.13 percent [+]
Building Permits 1122.00 1211 1156 1123 1263 1196 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10.19 10.19 10.14 10.12 10.39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 8.96 9.02 8.84 8.66 7.23 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31.11 31.26 31.21 31.17 31.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.15 18.23 18.22 18.21 18.19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 percent [+]