This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.60 7 7 6.9 6.8 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.70 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent
Balance of Trade -112.40 -780 -590 0 -158 -500 BGN Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.30 21.5 20.9 20.9 20.9 20 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.72
1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.94
Stock Market 586.98
points
621 616 612 607 589
Government Bond 10Y 0.93
percent
1.05 1.1 1.17 1.23 1.54
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent
0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00
percent
3.4 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.7
GDP 56.83
USD Billion
59 62 62 62 69
GDP Constant Prices 22043.59
BGN Million
25015 18984 22837 22727 26926
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4754.45
BGN Million
5015 3359 4926 4902 5398
GDP per capita 8311.93
USD
8320 8450 8450 8450 8560
GDP per capita PPP 18563.31
USD
18900 19200 19200 19200 20300
GDP From Agriculture 745.03
BGN Million
738 421 772 768 794
GDP From Construction 1009.51
BGN Million
835 840 1046 1041 899
GDP From Manufacturing 5496.65
BGN Million
5624 4861 5695 5667 6054
GDP From Public Administration 3216.40
BGN Million
3456 3358 3332 3316 3720
GDP From Services 4893.61
BGN Million
5722 3615 5070 5045 6159
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.60
percent
7 7 6.9 6.8 6.5
Employed Persons 3205.30
Thousand
3153 3094 3144 3193 3142
Unemployed Persons 183.85
Thousand
188 190 190 190 190
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.20
percent
3.04 3.08 3.12 3.07 3.05
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.40
percent
10.9 11.61 10.83 10.44 9.16
Labour Costs 141.89
Index Points
131 159 145 135 139
Job Vacancies 20801.00
20113 23229 21433 21246 21448
Wages 1135.00
BGN/Month
1230 1200 1129 1128 1400
Minimum Wages 260.76
EUR/Month
261 295 295 295 340
Population 7.05
Million
7.05 7 7.02 7.02 6.97
Retirement Age Women 61.17
61.17 61.33 61.17 61.17 61.5
Retirement Age Men 64.08
64.08 64.17 64.08 64.08 64.25
Wages High Skilled 1280.00
BGN/Month
1360 1360 1056 1075 1400
Wages In Manufacturing 1016.00
BGN/Month
1010 1030 1106 1127 1150
Wages Low Skilled 600.00
BGN/Month
680 680 562 570 700
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.10
percent
55.33 54.56 55.28 55.93 55.42
Living Wage Family 1080.00
BGN/Month
1091 1113 1074 1069 1070
Living Wage Individual 675.00
BGN/Month
686 675 670 664 664
Part Time Employment 57.50
Thousand
59.67 58.88 57.9 58.85 58.57
Productivity 115.30
Index Points
116 116 116 116 116
Full Time Employment 3020.70
Thousand
3028 2973 3021 3071 3029
Employment Change -0.20
percent
-0.02 0.03 0.09 0.07 0.05
Employment Rate 53.30
percent
52.46 51.69 52.54 53.31 52.66
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.70
percent
3.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70
percent
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.55
Index Points
104 104 105 106 109
Consumer Price Index CPI 6908.97
Index Points
6934 6906 6954 7024 7243
Core Consumer Prices 100.70
Index Points
101 101 102 103 105
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6
Producer Prices 106.20
Index Points
110 111 114 113 122
Export Prices 102.60
Index Points
104 103 104 104 104
Import Prices 100.20
Index Points
100 100 101 101 101
Producer Prices Change 3.70
percent
6.2 6.5 6.6 6.4 4
CPI Housing Utilities 15409.20
Index Points
15319 15316 15337 15653 16000
CPI Transportation 8068.25
Index Points
7861 7743 8119 8266 8211
Food Inflation 3.30
percent
2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 1
Interbank Rate -0.23
percent
-0.23 -0.23 -0.23 0.02 0.77
Money Supply M0 15232.40
BGN Million
15580 15708 15782 15820 15858
Money Supply M1 51875.60
BGN Million
53330 54760 56178 57583 69676
Money Supply M2 91610.40
BGN Million
93596 95491 97388 99257 115044
Money Supply M3 91610.90
BGN Million
93590 95469 97349 99202 114859
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47206.92
BGN Million
47426 47280 47260 47254 47254
Deposit Interest Rate 0.05
percent
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.3 1.05
Loans To Private Sector 32549727.00
BGN Thousand
32834076 33073185 33279229 33456952 34277618
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7530.10
BGN Million
7519 7511 7518 7512 7516
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -112.40
BGN Million
-780 -590 0 -158 -500
Exports 4710.10
BGN Million
4620 5150 5410 4749 5650
Imports 4822.50
BGN Million
5400 5740 5410 4906 6150
Current Account 312.70
EUR Million
-350 -50 300 450 -100
Current Account to GDP 4.50
percent
2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1
External Debt 33805.10
EUR Million
34141 34327 34487 34626 35284
Capital Flows 288.00
EUR Million
343 375 365 367 367
Remittances 104.00
EUR Million
97.47 103 103 101 102
Tourist Arrivals 1324202.00
575000 1034300 1111600 1019100 587000
Gold Reserves 40.40
Tonnes
40.42 40.43 40.44 40.45 40.54
Terrorism Index 1.18
1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18
Weapons Sales 61.00
USD Million
23.28 23.8 24.31 24.83 28.81
Foreign Direct Investment 119.90
EUR Million
127 133 132 132 132
Crude Oil Production 1.00
BBL/D/1K
1 1 1 1 1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.30
percent
21.5 20.9 20.9 20.9 20
Government Budget 0.90
percent of GDP
-0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1
Government Budget Value 384.35
BGN Million
306 295 289 290 290
Government Spending to GDP 35.20
percent
35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2
Government Debt 12312.80
EUR Million
12231 12204 12180 12157 12032
Military Expenditure 843.41
USD Million
984 1028 1071 1114 1505
Government Revenues 2956.01
BGN Million
3025 3002 2996 2997 2997
Government Spending 1778.87
BGN Million
2133 1604 1843 1834 2296
Asylum Applications 145.00
persons
153 140 143 146 145
Fiscal Expenditure 2582.32
BGN Million
2702 2707 2707 2707 2707
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 25.20
Index Points
31 27 25 24 22
Industrial Production -0.80
percent
1.5 -0.23 -0.2 -0.2 1.6
Industrial Production Mom -1.20
percent
0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
Manufacturing Production 5.00
percent
3.42 3.71 3.65 3.61 3.62
Capacity Utilization 78.30
percent
77.05 78.37 78.37 78.25 78.22
Changes in Inventories 500.69
BGN Million
489 397 448 424 434
Internet Speed 15540.59
KBps
14947 14976 14892 15009 14828
IP Addresses 1705695.00
IP
1697569 1703278 1699693 1696136 1703171
Mining Production -12.20
percent
-7.61 -4.4 -2.65 -1.73 -0.79
Steel Production 49.00
Thousand Tonnes
54.4 54.82 54.63 54.5 54.54
Competitiveness Index 63.56
Points
64.06 64.06 64.06 64.06 66.56
Competitiveness Rank 51.00
51 51 51 51 51
Ease of Doing Business 59.00
50 52 53 54 50
Electricity Production 3590.00
Gigawatt-hour
3777 3879 3835 3842 3842
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
43 43 43 43 43
Corruption Rank 71.00
71 71 71 71 71
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -27.00
Index Points
-24.1 -22.9 -23.3 -22.7 -20
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent
0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 4.60
percent
5.6 4.8 4.5 4.4 2.7
Consumer Credit 21419.14
Million BGL
21849 22255 22636 22993 25339
Gasoline Prices 1.39
USD/Liter
1.37 1.34 1.32 1.3 1.2
Households Debt To Income 32.71
percent
30.73 30.3 29.87 29.44 25.13
Consumer Spending 16271.60
BGN Million
18948 15469 16857 16776 20396
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output -4.00
percent
-0.1 1.1 2.3 1.8 3.5
Housing Index 124.03
Index Points
130 131 132 132 133
Housing Starts 1128.00
units
764 750 1092 938 779
Home Ownership Rate 82.90
percent
83.05 83.06 83.07 83.07 83.09
Building Permits 1476.00
Units
1212 1128 1392 1320 1152
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 32.40
percent
32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.06
percent
19.06 19.06 19.06 19.06 19.06
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.34
percent
13.34 13.34 13.34 13.34 13.34
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 2.21
mm
54.47 43.25 58.1 58.1 52.68
Temperature 1.95
celsius
6.28 1.54 17.07 14.15 10.75



Bulgaria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook