Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.50 8.4 8 7.9 7.2 7.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 33.40 -179 -167 -230 -264 -427 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 24.80 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.4 25.7 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.65 1.65 1.64 1.62 1.6 1.42 [+]
Stock Market 668.12 672 665 658 651 577 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.22 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.46 1.61 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.90 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.5 percent [+]
GDP 52.40 58.14 50.2 49 47.8 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 21370.41 22747 19423 20673 22353 21884 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4472.88 4663 3205 4313 4015 4468 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7929.49 8150 8320 8320 8320 8560 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17709.08 18120 18193 18265 18337 18630 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 842.74 895 438 798 1425 1003 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 929.04 726 732 868 866 774 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5221.30 4968 4801 5067 5183 4998 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3026.10 3301 2924 3060 2738 3047 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 4530.48 5429 3433 4474 4856 5184 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.50 8.4 8 7.9 7.2 7.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3225.00 3075 3074 3155 3144 3047 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 213.31 211 215 221 228 277 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.50 3.37 3.41 3.49 3.66 5.66 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.40 11.36 11.84 12.19 12.34 13.93 percent [+]
Labour Costs 135.82 119 136 134 122 124 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 18908.00 18673 18836 18866 18775 18618 [+]
Wages 1064.00 1063 1061 1060 1060 1053 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 235.20 230 243 251 251 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.10 7.1 7.06 7.06 7.06 6.97 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.00 64 63.5 63.25 63 63 [+]
Wages High Skilled 1260.00 951 986 1003 1020 964 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 926.00 929 928 928 927 920 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 657.00 531 551 561 571 539 BGN/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.50 53.06 53.68 55.03 54.59 53.7 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1060.00 1097 1097 1097 1097 1113 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 675.00 696 696 696 696 692 BGN/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 73.20 60.81 62.7 62.38 61.59 63.04 Thousand [+]
Productivity 111.40 132 103 111 125 130 Index Points [+]
Full Time Employment 3019.70 2900 2913 2950 2927 2862 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.19 0.07 0.04 percent [+]
Employment Rate 53.20 50.68 50.85 52.22 51.94 50.29 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 1.72 2 2.07 2.09 2.1 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.94 98.79 97.5 95.96 94.31 80.51 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6664.99 6622 6615 6606 6597 6517 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 98.31 98.27 98.17 98.05 97.93 97 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.10 0.6 1 1.5 1.9 3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 111.50 114 116 116 111 129 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 103.80 104 104 103 103 102 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 105.30 104 104 103 102 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.70 4.9 3.6 3.6 4.97 2.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 14738.54 14814 14850 14849 14839 14721 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 7391.34 7358 7346 7338 7329 7255 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.20 2.9 3 2.7 2.5 2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.18 -0.12 -0.07 0 0.05 0.54 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 13682.20 13726 13720 13712 13704 13631 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 45696.10 46758 47118 47215 47213 46680 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 83857.20 84901 85218 85288 85274 84792 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 83928.00 84982 85307 85380 85368 84885 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 43477.31 43175 42160 41902 41776 40863 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.20 3.39 3.99 4.59 5.19 9.18 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 31374209.00 31448320 31428442 31376478 31312960 30698648 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7862.08 7816 7773 7731 7690 7354 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 33.40 -179 -167 -230 -264 -427 BGN Million [+]
Exports 4502.90 4454 4427 4400 4373 4141 BGN Million [+]
Imports 4469.50 4502 4453 4428 4399 4167 BGN Million [+]
Current Account 415.20 129 3.5 -54.32 -81.02 -104 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 33148.90 32484 32227 32076 31970 31326 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 385.40 374 259 184 135 38.17 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 66.20 68.31 71.51 73.86 74.84 74.84 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1270585.00 568000 479000 1492000 1254000 587000 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.35 40.33 40.33 40.32 40.32 40.29 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.18 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.12 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 28.91 29.83 30.75 31.66 33.76 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 71.60 87.9 100 113 123 161 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.94 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.80 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.4 25.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 284.82 -1840 161 85 141 -1210 BGN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 35.50 34.69 35.26 35.83 36.4 39.22 percent [+]
Government Debt 12637.90 12466 12383 12313 12246 11687 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 756.30 856 894 933 971 1332 USD Million [+]
Government Revenues 2689.70 2585 2539 2489 2451 2302 BGN Million [+]
Government Spending 1721.78 1893 1521 1714 1526 1797 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 365.00 545 655 711 735 750 persons [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2416.67 2311 2262 2227 2204 2164 BGN Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 25.50 25.05 24.02 23.3 22.68 19.67 [+]
Industrial Production 3.20 1.7 3.37 3.35 3.33 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.5 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.30 4.63 4.64 4.66 4.68 4.74 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.10 74.37 75.54 75.3 74.77 71.81 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 373.63 252 270 272 251 217 BGN Million [+]
Internet Speed 15540.59 15243 15090 14936 14771 13242 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 1705695.00 1691614 1684240 1675540 1673676 1605675 IP [+]
Mining Production 7.70 3.75 1.89 0.94 0.42 -0.13 percent [+]
Steel Production 52.00 54.7 57.38 59.96 62.45 81.45 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.46 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.54 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 52 52 52 52 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 50.00 48 55 59 63 57 [+]
Electricity Production 3615.00 3871 3846 3858 3856 3856 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 39 38 38 37 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 72 72 72 72 69 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -26.10 -25.98 -27.86 -28.12 -28.76 -32.65 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.6 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.30 3.4 3.13 3.46 3.75 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 19511.00 19789 20004 20160 20266 20056 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.21 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.15 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 36.85 35.17 34.55 33.92 33.3 25.18 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 15251.09 17084 14797 15358 14480 16108 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 6.00 -0.2 6.88 6.97 7.02 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 115.37 118 117 116 114 102 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 982.00 716 604 768 803 710 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 82.78 83.12 83.47 83.81 86.49 percent [+]
Building Permits 1526.00 1199 1192 1216 1238 1318 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 11 11 11 11 13 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 11 11 12 12 14 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 32.67 33.01 33.34 33.68 35.26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 19.22 19.52 19.81 20.1 21.72 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 13.39 13.42 13.46 13.49 13.45 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 2.00 50.73 50.73 50.73 50.73 50.73 mm [+]
Temperature 1.00 3.32 6.34 17.39 14.24 5.64 celsius [+]