Bulgaria | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.73 7.4 8.4 8 7.9 7.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.40 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 138.20 -156 -158 -218 -260 -440 BGN Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 25.40 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.4 25.7 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 1.63 1.6 1.59 1.57 1.56 1.38 [+]
Stock Market 670.33 704 697 690 683 604 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.75 1.98 2 2.02 2.04 2.25 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.60 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
GDP 52.40 51.87 58.14 51.03 50.31 70.51 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 21237.86 23484 23777 18378 21730 24028 BGN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3330.97 4628 5078 3498 4877 4952 BGN Million [+]
GDP per capita 7929.49 8076 8155 8197 8238 8567 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 17709.08 18028 18219 18324 18430 19295 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 842.74 1600 774 480 862 797 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 929.04 1087 712 719 953 768 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5221.30 5320 4820 4705 5239 4926 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3026.10 2906 3652 3103 3237 3773 BGN Million [+]
GDP From Services 4530.48 4910 5429 3433 4474 5184 BGN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.73 7.4 8.4 8 7.9 7.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3171.70 3192 3130 3150 3261 3284 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 220.88 219 223 225 225 225 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.14 2.92 2.76 2.56 1.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.70 13.53 13 13.08 12.86 12.29 percent [+]
Labour Costs 135.82 116 119 136 134 124 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 18466.00 18953 19241 21022 20128 19888 [+]
Wages 1027.00 1030 1031 1032 1032 1032 BGN/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 235.20 236 230 244 251 230 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.10 7.1 7.1 7.06 7.06 6.97 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 60.44 60.44 60.05 59.92 59.59 [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.00 63.67 63.67 63.54 63.5 63.62 [+]
Productivity 111.40 125 132 103 111 130 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 64.40 57.08 59.8 62.28 60.4 60.23 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 55.80 55.33 54.02 54.58 56.24 54.83 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1001.50 1019 1019 1019 1019 1019 BGN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 766.60 791 787 789 788 788 BGN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1140.00 1112 1111 1111 1111 1110 BGN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 926.00 949 969 989 1008 1195 BGN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 631.00 606 606 606 606 606 BGN/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 2902.90 2977 2931 2944 3000 2992 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.45 0.1 0.14 0.27 0.18 percent [+]
Employment Rate 52.20 52.55 51.59 52.12 53.92 54.52 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.03 101 102 103 103 104 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 6610.88 6617 6623 6628 6632 6648 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.32 98.22 98.81 99.06 98.87 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.50 -0.24 -0.16 -0.13 -0.07 -0.09 percent [+]
Producer Prices 110.20 112 114 116 116 129 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 103.20 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 105.10 105 105 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.70 6.5 4.9 3.6 3.6 2.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 14522.90 14539 14637 14728 14817 15691 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 7372.04 7277 7276 7276 7276 7276 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.50 6.4 13.14 17.91 20.61 23.32 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.08 -0.06 -0.02 0.04 0.1 0.65 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 13361.60 13460 13670 13763 13799 13838 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 43968.30 44872 46092 47292 48478 59615 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 81862.40 82407 83666 84857 86030 96315 BGN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 81933.60 82478 83737 84926 86097 96363 BGN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 47807.98 48300 48901 49491 50085 55978 BGN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.20 0.8 0.69 0.74 0.8 1.14 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 31344285.00 31445414 31634995 31792547 31927894 32575047 BGN Thousand [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7901.55 7830 7820 7822 7820 7820 BGN Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade 138.20 -156 -158 -218 -260 -440 BGN Million [+]
Exports 4604.60 4597 4565 4536 4508 4245 BGN Million [+]
Imports 4466.40 4502 4465 4445 4414 4156 BGN Million [+]
Current Account 1140.70 151 106 166 149 149 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.2 2.9 percent [+]
External Debt 34615.40 34892 35108 35204 35264 35321 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 38.50 105 109 110 110 110 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 77.50 71.99 71.93 74.16 74.25 73.68 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2022127.00 1201000 568000 479000 1492000 587000 [+]
Gold Reserves 40.35 40.36 40.38 40.4 40.41 40.56 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.63 0.87 0.48 0.32 0.16 0.51 [+]
Weapons Sales 4.00 18.63 15.41 16.27 17.14 23.7 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 26.80 -1.42 -2.99 -2.91 -2.95 -2.94 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 25.40 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.4 25.7 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 -0.17 -2.1 -0.28 -0.89 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 198.00 136 -1840 161 85 -1210 BGN Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 35.50 35.2 34.66 35.23 35.81 39.06 percent [+]
Government Debt 12622.50 12637 12465 12382 12313 11687 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 756.30 718 758 779 801 953 USD Million [+]
Government Revenues 2828.35 2608 2669 2671 2667 2667 BGN Million [+]
Government Spending 1929.75 1884 2327 1868 2043 2304 BGN Million [+]
Asylum Applications 230.00 616 709 619 593 617 persons [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2619.14 2527 2526 2526 2526 2526 BGN Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 26.40 26.9 26.19 26.28 26.2 26.21 [+]
Industrial Production 4.20 3.64 1.7 3.68 3.6 1.6 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 -0.23 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.30 5.49 5.42 5.29 5.19 4.85 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.60 75.65 74.67 74.47 74.48 74.52 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 472.89 380 401 407 422 412 BGN Million [+]
Steel Production 50.00 53.47 53.67 54.23 54.2 54.14 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -0.80 1.92 0.42 0.01 -0.14 -0.36 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.36 4.36 4.33 4.32 4.28 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 50.00 47 47 51 52 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 39.00 40 40 45 50 59 [+]
Electricity Production 3726.00 3950 3881 3839 3861 3857 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 43 44 43 42 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 73 74 75 75 75 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -25.40 -27.7 -24.9 -26.12 -25.79 -25.89 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.32 0.6 0.51 0.51 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.40 2.89 3.4 3.57 3.85 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 19232.34 19371 19567 19747 19914 21022 Million BGL [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.21 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.19 1.19 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 36.85 36.54 35.75 35.51 35.28 32.69 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 16288.12 14690 16282 14696 16276 16246 BGN Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Construction Output 7.90 -2.2 -0.2 8.4 8.29 1.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 112.49 115 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 720.00 814 734 601 823 758 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 82.30 82.08 82.2 82.19 82.18 82.13 percent [+]
Building Permits 1122.00 1211 1156 1123 1263 1196 Units [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00 10.19 10.19 10.14 10.12 10.39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00 8.96 9.02 8.84 8.66 7.23 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 31.00 31.11 31.26 31.21 31.17 31.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 18.10 18.15 18.23 18.22 18.21 18.19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.90 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 percent [+]