Bulgaria's economy advanced 3.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, below a preliminary estimate of 3.4 percent and down from a 3.4 percent rise in the previous period. It is the slowest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2014. Government spending rose less (3.6 percent vs 4.5 percent in Q2) and net external demand contributed negatively to growth, as exports fell further (-3.6 percent vs -1.9 percent) while imports grew (4.0 percent vs 5.0 percent). In contrast, household consumption (7.7 percent vs 7.5 percent) and fixed investment (7.0 percent vs 6.6 percent) went up faster. On a quarterly basis, the GDP expanded 0.7 percent, above a preliminary figure of 0.5 percent but down from a 0.8 percent rise in the second quarter of the year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Bulgaria averaged 3.02 percent from 1996 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 17.20 percent in the first quarter of 1998 and a record low of -14 percent in the third quarter of 1996.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Bulgaria is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Bulgaria to stand at 3.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Bulgaria GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 3.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.