Turkey Business Mood Hits 7-Month Low

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index fell to 100.6 in April 2026, the lowest level since September 2025 and down from 101 in the previous month. The decline was driven by softer expectations across key forward-looking components, particularly output over the next three months, which eased to 114 from 117 in March. Export order expectations also weakened (112 vs114.3), while anticipated total orders edged slightly higher (101.6 vs101.2), suggesting only marginal improvement in demand prospects. Employment expectations showed a modest uptick (103.7 vs 102.8), indicating some resilience in hiring plans. Firms, however, turned more optimistic on investment, with fixed investment expenditure expectations rising to 109.3 from 105. Current conditions improved slightly, as total orders increased (86.5 vs 84.3), while stocks of finished goods dipped (97.5 vs 98.4). Meanwhile, sentiment on the general business situation deteriorated notably to 79.9 from 84.8.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index fell to 101 in March 2026, retreating from an eleven-month high of 104.1 in the previous month. The latest reading also marked the lowest level since December, driven by broad-based decline across components, particularly expectations for output over the next three months (117 vs 120.4 in February). Export order expectations also eased to 114.3 from 115.6, while anticipated total orders slipped to 101.2 from 103.9, pointing to moderating demand prospects. Labor market sentiment weakened slightly, with employment expectations edging down to 102.8 from 103.5. At the same time, firms turned more cautious on investment, as expectations for fixed investment expenditure declined to 105.0 from 108.5. Current conditions also softened, with total orders falling to 84.3 from 87.9 and stocks of finished goods decreasing to 98.4 from 100.7. Meanwhile, sentiment on the general business situation dropped notably to 84.8 from 92.5.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index rose to 104.1 in February 2026, its highest level since March 2025, up from 101.6 in January. Most subcomponents improved, led by the expected volume of output over the next three months, which jumped to 120.4 from 111.4. Employment expectations also rose (103.5 vs 102.6), alongside stronger assessments of order books: current orders increased to 87.9 from 86.1, while expectations for orders over the next three months climbed to 103.9 from 102.1. Export order expectations strengthened as well (115.6 vs 107.8), and stocks of finished goods edged up slightly (100.7 vs 100.5), pointing to stable inventory conditions. Sentiment toward fixed investment expenditure also improved (108.5 vs 107.8). Meanwhile, views on the general business situation eased (92.5 vs 94.1), reflecting cautious optimism amid lingering uncertainties.