Turkey Business Morale Hits 3-Month High

Turkey’s manufacturing confidence index rose to 103.3 in May 2026 from a seven-month low of 100.6 in the previous month. It marked the highest reading since February, driven largely by stronger expectations for output over the next three months, which edged up to 114.3 from 114.0, while export order expectations jumped to 116.3 from 112.0. Expectations for employment over the same period also strengthened to 105.4 from 103.7. Moreover, assessments of total current orders improved to 87.5 from 86.5, although assessments of finished goods inventories eased slightly to 97.4 from 97.5. Elsewhere, expectations for fixed investment expenditure increased to 109.8 from 109.3, while perceptions of the general business climate surged to 90.4 from 79.9, pointing to a broader improvement in industrial sentiment.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index fell to 100.6 in April 2026, the lowest level since September 2025 and down from 101 in the previous month. The decline was driven by softer expectations across key forward-looking components, particularly output over the next three months, which eased to 114 from 117 in March. Export order expectations also weakened (112 vs114.3), while anticipated total orders edged slightly higher (101.6 vs101.2), suggesting only marginal improvement in demand prospects. Employment expectations showed a modest uptick (103.7 vs 102.8), indicating some resilience in hiring plans. Firms, however, turned more optimistic on investment, with fixed investment expenditure expectations rising to 109.3 from 105. Current conditions improved slightly, as total orders increased (86.5 vs 84.3), while stocks of finished goods dipped (97.5 vs 98.4). Meanwhile, sentiment on the general business situation deteriorated notably to 79.9 from 84.8.

Turkey’s manufacturing industry confidence index fell to 101 in March 2026, retreating from an eleven-month high of 104.1 in the previous month. The latest reading also marked the lowest level since December, driven by broad-based decline across components, particularly expectations for output over the next three months (117 vs 120.4 in February). Export order expectations also eased to 114.3 from 115.6, while anticipated total orders slipped to 101.2 from 103.9, pointing to moderating demand prospects. Labor market sentiment weakened slightly, with employment expectations edging down to 102.8 from 103.5. At the same time, firms turned more cautious on investment, as expectations for fixed investment expenditure declined to 105.0 from 108.5. Current conditions also softened, with total orders falling to 84.3 from 87.9 and stocks of finished goods decreasing to 98.4 from 100.7. Meanwhile, sentiment on the general business situation dropped notably to 84.8 from 92.5.