Sweden Business Confidence Holds Firm in May

Sweden’s business confidence indicator was broadly unchanged at 103.3 in May 2026 from 103.5 in April, remaining above the 100 mark and continuing to signal stronger-than-normal business sentiment. Demand conditions remained weak, with the indicator slipping to -24 from -23, staying below historical norms. Employment trends were largely stable, as firms reported only a slight decline in staffing over the past three months (-1 vs -2), while hiring expectations for the next three months eased to 1 from 3, pointing to a broadly unchanged workforce outlook. Construction was the only sector expecting employment growth ahead. Meanwhile, pricing intentions strengthened notably, with expected sales prices over the next three months rising sharply to 23 from 16, the highest among the surveyed indicators. The increase was particularly evident in the grocery trade, partly reflecting adjustments following the VAT reduction on food introduced in April.

Sweden’s business confidence barometer rose to 103.3 in April 2026 from a downwardly revised 102.2 in the previous month, remaining above the 100 level and signaling stronger-than-normal sentiment. Firms’ view of demand was unchanged from March but remained weaker than normal (-23 vs -24 in March). Employment conditions were mixed, with companies reporting a slight decline in staffing over the past three months (-2 vs -6), though trade remained an exception with job growth, while hiring plans (3 vs 4) pointed to broadly normal recruitment. Labor shortages (at 20) persisted, especially in manufacturing. Firms also reported sales prices (16 vs 14) rose at a normal pace, while price plans (2.6 vs 1.7) signaled stronger increases ahead, particularly in manufacturing and trade. Despite stronger confidence and resilient pricing power, profitability (-10 vs -12) was still seen as weaker than normal, indicating businesses remained cautious even as sentiment stayed in expansionary territory.

Sweden’s business confidence barometer fell to 102.3 in March 2026 from a downwardly revised 104 in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since September last year, though still pointing to a broadly neutral business climate. Firms’ assessment of demand (-24 vs -25 in February) remained steady but slightly weaker than normal overall, with trade standing out as more stable. Employment (-7 vs -6) declined across all sectors, although hiring plans (4 vs 5) suggest a modest pickup in staffing over the next three months. Price expectations (13 vs 12) remained broadly in line with normal levels, but the trade sector showed softer pricing power, led by grocery retailers where price cuts are expected, partly reflecting the upcoming VAT reduction on food. Meanwhile, investment plans were mixed, with manufacturing seen holding steady this year while services showed a more optimistic outlook.