Retail sales in Slovakia stalled year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 4.5 percent rise in the previous month. It is the worst performance since a 0.6 percent contraction in July of 2016, mainly due to a decline in sales in non-specialized stores (-2.7 percent compared to +7.7 percent in January) and sales of other goods in specialized stores (-4.4 percent compared to -6 percent). On the other hand, increases were seen in sales not in stores, stalls and markets (9.4 percent compared to 18.9 percent); auto fuels in specialized stores (5.5 percent compared to 8 percent) and food, beverages and tobacco (17.3 percent compared to 16.8 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 1.8 percent, after a 0.8 percent gain in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Slovakia averaged 3.15 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 28.60 percent in April of 1999 and a record low of -14.30 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Slovakia is expected to be 4.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Slovakia to stand at 3.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Slovakia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.