Romania Holds Interest Rate

The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% in its second policy meeting of 2026, keeping borrowing costs steady since concluding its cutting cycle in August of 2024. The monetary authority noted that headline inflation slowed in the fourth quarter of the previous year due to lower fuel prices, while their preferred core inflation rate was steady at the turn of the year following its slight uptick in the earlier months. The data loosely maintained the inflationary backdrop in balance with the monetary conditions from the last year. Similarly, economy-wide employment declined in the previous quarter, but the ILO-standardized unemployment rate also inched down. The BNR continued to see an uncertain outlook due to geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions, but its base case remained that inflation will fall sharply in the third quarter of this year to return to target by the first half of 2027.

The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate steady at 6.50% in its first policy meeting of 2026, marking the eleventh consecutive pause and in line with market expectations. Headline inflation slightly eased to 9.7% in December 2025 but remains far above the 1.5–3.5% target, with core inflation continuing to rise. GDP growth rebounded to 1.7% year-on-year in Q3, supported by investment, private consumption, and net exports, though domestic demand remains weak and Q4 is expected to stagnate. The labor market stayed fragile: unemployment rose to 6.1% in Q3 and fell slightly in October–November, while employment continued to decline and wage growth moderated. Financial conditions improved as interbank rates and bond yields fell, the leu strengthened, and credit growth slowed. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to gradually decline, influenced by fiscal consolidation, European fund absorption, structural reforms, and global monetary and geopolitical developments.

The National Bank of Romania kept its benchmark rate at 6.50% on November 12, marking the tenth consecutive pause and matching expectations. The move aims to ensure price stability while supporting growth. Inflation edged up to 9.88% in September from 9.85% in August, as higher fuel, energy, and non-food prices offset declines in food and tobacco. The NBR expects inflation to ease gradually but remain above earlier forecasts due to the end of the electricity price cap and recent tax hikes. The labor market showed slight job losses and a small dip in unemployment to around 6%, while wage growth stayed strong. Policymakers highlighted fiscal uncertainty under the EU’s structural plan and external risks tied to trade tensions, the war in Ukraine, and EU investment priorities. The bank underscored the need to absorb EU funds to offset fiscal tightening and support reforms.