Mexico GDP Revised Lower

The Mexican GDP expanded by 1.4% in the second quarter of 2026, revised downwards from the first estimate of 1.5% but still ahead of the initial market expectations of 1.3%. The result confirmed the rebound from the 0.6% contraction in the first period of the year, reflecting some resilience from the Mexican economy to repeated trade turbulence with the United States and soaring energy prices due to the war between the US and Iran. The GDP expanded for primary activities (2.4%) amid the higher prices of oil and gas extracted in Mexico and the Gulf region. Meanwhile, the secondary activities expanded by 1.6%, and services expanded by 1.4%. Annually, the Mexican GDP grew by 2.1%.

The Mexican GDP rose 1.5% from the previous quarter in the second quarter of 2026, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of the year. This marks the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2022, exceeding market's expectations of a 1.2% increase. The increase was in line with Bank of Mexico's outlook, that left its interest rate unchanged amid easing inflation over the quarter. Growth was driven by primary activities, which rose 3.3%, while secondary activities expanded 4.6% and the services sector grew 1.5%. Economic activity increased 1.2% from the previous year, marking the strongest yearly expansion since the fourth quarter of 2023, supported mainly by primary activities.

The Mexican GDP contracted by 0.6% from the previous quarter in the first quarter of 2026, trimming te 0.9% expansion from the final quarter of last year. The result was revised from the preliminary estimate of a 0.8% contraction, but maintained the undershot of market expectations of a 0.5% contraction. The pressure in the GDP was in line with projections by the Bank of Mexico, that resumed their interest rate cutting cycle despite the aggressive rebound in inflation from March. Output contracted 1.7% for primary activities despite the surge in silver and energy prices. Meanwhile, production fell 1.0% for the secondary sector as manufacturers continued to adjust to tariffs from the US, cutting a key source of demand for auto producers. In turn, services output fell by 0.4%. The GDP inched higher by 0.2% from the previous year.