Mexican GDP Expands Most Since Q1 2022

The Mexican GDP rose 1.5% from the previous quarter in the second quarter of 2026, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of the year. This marks the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2022, exceeding market's expectations of a 1.2% increase. The increase was in line with Bank of Mexico's outlook, that left its interest rate unchanged amid easing inflation over the quarter. Growth was driven by primary activities, which rose 3.3%, while secondary activities expanded 4.6% and the services sector grew 1.5%. Economic activity increased 1.2% from the previous year, marking the strongest yearly expansion since the fourth quarter of 2023, supported mainly by primary activities.

The Mexican GDP contracted by 0.6% from the previous quarter in the first quarter of 2026, trimming te 0.9% expansion from the final quarter of last year. The result was revised from the preliminary estimate of a 0.8% contraction, but maintained the undershot of market expectations of a 0.5% contraction. The pressure in the GDP was in line with projections by the Bank of Mexico, that resumed their interest rate cutting cycle despite the aggressive rebound in inflation from March. Output contracted 1.7% for primary activities despite the surge in silver and energy prices. Meanwhile, production fell 1.0% for the secondary sector as manufacturers continued to adjust to tariffs from the US, cutting a key source of demand for auto producers. In turn, services output fell by 0.4%. The GDP inched higher by 0.2% from the previous year.

The Mexican GDP contracted by 0.8% from the pervious quarter in the first quarter of 2026, erasing the 0.9% expansion from the final quarter of last year to overshoot the expectations that the economy would contract 0.5%. The contraction was in line with projections by the Bank of Mexico, that resumed their interest rate cutting cycle despite the aggressive rebound in inflation from March. Output contracted 1.4% for primary activities despite the surge in silver and energy prices. Meanwhile, production fell 1.1% for the secondary sector as manufacturers continued to adjust to tariffs from the US, cutting a key source of demand for auto producers. In turn, services output fell by 0.6%. The GDP inched higher by 0.1% from the previous year.