Mexico Trade Surplus Falls Short of Forecast

2026-09-28 12:45 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

Mexico’s trade balance posted a surplus of $605 million in August 2026, widening from $209 million a year earlier but falling well short of forecasts of $1.4 billion.

Total merchandise exports reached $78.01 billion, up 40.4% year over year.

Manufactured goods exports rose 42.6%, led by electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (122.3%), mining and metallurgical products (50.4%), plastic and rubber products (10.6%), food, beverages and tobacco (10%), and specialized machinery and equipment for various industries (7.2%).

Agricultural and fishing exports fell 1.6%, while oil exports declined 2.8%.

Merchandise imports totaled $77.40 billion, with consumer goods imports up 8.9%, intermediate goods purchases surging 41.9%, and capital goods imports rising 6.9%.

In the first eight months of 2026, the trade balance recorded a $9.86 billion surplus.



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Mexico Trade Surplus Falls Short of Forecast
Mexico’s trade balance posted a surplus of $605 million in August 2026, widening from $209 million a year earlier but falling well short of forecasts of $1.4 billion. Total merchandise exports reached $78.01 billion, up 40.4% year over year. Manufactured goods exports rose 42.6%, led by electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (122.3%), mining and metallurgical products (50.4%), plastic and rubber products (10.6%), food, beverages and tobacco (10%), and specialized machinery and equipment for various industries (7.2%). Agricultural and fishing exports fell 1.6%, while oil exports declined 2.8%. Merchandise imports totaled $77.40 billion, with consumer goods imports up 8.9%, intermediate goods purchases surging 41.9%, and capital goods imports rising 6.9%. In the first eight months of 2026, the trade balance recorded a $9.86 billion surplus.
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Mexico’s trade balance posted a deficit of $848 million in July 2026, compared with a $80.9 million deficit a year earlier, marking the largest gap since January. Imports rose 45% year-on-year to $82.27 billion, led by a 56.3% increase in intermediate goods. This reflected increases of 57.7% in non-oil intermediate goods imports and 36.3% in oil intermediate goods imports. Imports of capital goods rose 9.9%, while consumer goods imports increased 9.8%, driven by a 50.4% rise in oil consumer goods, including gasoline and butane and propane gas. Exports rose 43.7% to $81.42 billion, reflecting growth of 45% in non-oil exports and 6.8% in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, shipments to the US increased 49.8%, while exports to other markets rose 21%. In the first seven months of 2026, the merchandise trade balance posted a surplus of $9.25 billion.
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Mexico's trade surplus widened to $4.09 billion in June 2026 from $0.51 billion a year earlier, well above market expectations of $2.28 billion. Exports surged 34.4% year-on-year to $72.5 billion, driven by a 34.1% increase in non-oil shipments and a 43.4% rise in oil exports. Manufactured exports climbed 35.3%, led by metal products (40.9%), electrical and electronic equipment (19.7%), food, beverages and tobacco (14.5%), and automotive products (7.6%). In contrast, agricultural and fisheries exports fell 2.8%. Imports rose 28% to $68.46 billion, reflecting strong domestic demand. Intermediate goods imports increased 30.9%, consumer goods imports advanced 23.5%, boosted by a 66% surge in petroleum products, while capital goods imports rose 8.8%.
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