Mexico Trade Surplus Widens Above Forecasts

Mexico’s trade balance posted a deficit of $848 million in July 2026, compared with a $80.9 million deficit a year earlier, marking the largest gap since January. Imports rose 45% year-on-year to $82.27 billion, led by a 56.3% increase in intermediate goods. This reflected increases of 57.7% in non-oil intermediate goods imports and 36.3% in oil intermediate goods imports. Imports of capital goods rose 9.9%, while consumer goods imports increased 9.8%, driven by a 50.4% rise in oil consumer goods, including gasoline and butane and propane gas. Exports rose 43.7% to $81.42 billion, reflecting growth of 45% in non-oil exports and 6.8% in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, shipments to the US increased 49.8%, while exports to other markets rose 21%. In the first seven months of 2026, the merchandise trade balance posted a surplus of $9.25 billion.

Mexico's trade surplus widened to $4.09 billion in June 2026 from $0.51 billion a year earlier, well above market expectations of $2.28 billion. Exports surged 34.4% year-on-year to $72.5 billion, driven by a 34.1% increase in non-oil shipments and a 43.4% rise in oil exports. Manufactured exports climbed 35.3%, led by metal products (40.9%), electrical and electronic equipment (19.7%), food, beverages and tobacco (14.5%), and automotive products (7.6%). In contrast, agricultural and fisheries exports fell 2.8%. Imports rose 28% to $68.46 billion, reflecting strong domestic demand. Intermediate goods imports increased 30.9%, consumer goods imports advanced 23.5%, boosted by a 66% surge in petroleum products, while capital goods imports rose 8.8%.

Mexico’s trade surplus widened to $2.26 billion in May 2026 from a $1.23 billion a year earlier, but falling short of market expectations for a $4.6 billion surplus. Exports rose 25.4% year-on-year to $69.5 billion, after touching a record high level in April, driven by an 88.7% surge in mining shipments and a 25.1% increase in manufacturing exports, mostly machinery and specialized industrial equipment. However, auto exports declined 2.2%. Imports jumped 24% to $67.3 billion, mainly due to higher purchases of intermediate goods, particularly oil, which rose 31.5%. Imports of consumer and capital goods also increased 6.5% and 1.6%, respectively. In the first five months of 2026, Mexico posted a trade surplus of $5.78 billion.