Mexico Trade Surplus Widens in May Despite Missing Forecasts

Mexico’s trade surplus widened to $2.26 billion in May 2026 from a $1.23 billion a year earlier, but falling short of market expectations for a $4.6 billion surplus. Exports rose 25.4% year-on-year to $69.5 billion, after touching a record high level in April, driven by an 88.7% surge in mining shipments and a 25.1% increase in manufacturing exports, mostly machinery and specialized industrial equipment. However, auto exports declined 2.2%. Imports jumped 24% to $67.3 billion, mainly due to higher purchases of intermediate goods, particularly oil, which rose 31.5%. Imports of consumer and capital goods also increased 6.5% and 1.6%, respectively. In the first five months of 2026, Mexico posted a trade surplus of $5.78 billion.

Mexico’s trade balance rebounded to a $4.52 billion surplus in April 2026 from a $0.04 billion deficit a year earlier, beating forecasts of a $1.41 billion surplus. Exports surged 32.6% year-on-year to $72.04 billion, driven by a 71% jump in extractive shipments. Manufacturing exports also rose sharply by 34%, with auto exports increasing 8.2%. Meanwhile, exports of agricultural and livestock products edged up 0.1%. Imports advanced 24.1% to $67.52 billion, mainly due to a 29.8% increase in intermediate goods purchases. Imports of consumer goods rose 7.7%, while capital goods imports increased 1.3%. Year-to-date, the trade balance recorded a surplus of $3.51 billion.

Mexico’s trade surplus widened 80.3% year-on-year to $5.93 billion in March 2026, far exceeding forecasts of a $0.72 billion surplus. Exports surged 27.7% to $70.73 billion, driven by a 29.6% rise in non-oil exports. Manufactured goods led the growth, reaching $64.72 billion (29.5%), with significant gains in mining and metallurgy (61.8%), electrical and electronic equipment (17.8%), food and beverages (14.4%), and automotive products (2.0%). Agricultural and fishery exports rose 0.7% to $2.22 billion, led by edible fruits (38.5%) and citrus (36.1%). Oil sales dropped 20.4% to $1.71 billion as crude export volumes fell to 495,000 barrels per day from 827,000. Imports rose 24.3% to $64.79 billion, with consumer goods up 19.3%, intermediate goods up 27.2%, and capital goods up 7.0%. For the first quarter of 2026, the trade balance recorded a deficit of $1.01 billion.