Mexico Trade Surplus Widens in March

Mexico’s trade surplus widened 80.3% year-on-year to $5.93 billion in March 2026, far exceeding forecasts of a $0.72 billion surplus. Exports surged 27.7% to $70.73 billion, driven by a 29.6% rise in non-oil exports. Manufactured goods led the growth, reaching $64.72 billion (29.5%), with significant gains in mining and metallurgy (61.8%), electrical and electronic equipment (17.8%), food and beverages (14.4%), and automotive products (2.0%). Agricultural and fishery exports rose 0.7% to $2.22 billion, led by edible fruits (38.5%) and citrus (36.1%). Oil sales dropped 20.4% to $1.71 billion as crude export volumes fell to 495,000 barrels per day from 827,000. Imports rose 24.3% to $64.79 billion, with consumer goods up 19.3%, intermediate goods up 27.2%, and capital goods up 7.0%. For the first quarter of 2026, the trade balance recorded a deficit of $1.01 billion.

Mexico’s trade balance swung to a $0.46 billion deficit in February 2026, reversing last year’s $1.65 billion surplus and defying analysts’ expectation of a $1.2 billion surplus. Imports soared 20.8% year-on-year to $57.31 billion, as 22.6% jump in purchases of non-oil goods more than offset a 1.4% decline in oil imports. In particular, increases were seen for intermediate goods (29.5%) and consumer goods (5.5%). Meanwhile, exports climbed 15.8% to $56.85 billion, buoyed by a 17.5% rise in non-oil shipments, led by mining products, which soared 107.6%, and manufactured goods, up 17.1%. On the other hand, agricultural exports fell 12.8%, while automotive shipments declined 3.4%, led by an 8.7% drop to the United States. Meanwhile, overseas sales of oil products plunged 24.2%. Overall, non-oil exports continued to perform well, rising 15.9% to the United States and 26.4% to other international markets.

Mexico posted a trade deficit of $6.48 billion in January 2026, a record high, widening from $5.21 billion a year earlier and well above forecasts of $2.20 billion. Merchandise imports totaled $54.49 billion, up 9.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by intermediate goods at $43.12 billion (14.2%), particularly strong growth in non-petroleum intermediates (16.5%). Capital goods imports fell 4.4% to $4.38 billion, while consumer goods imports declined 3.8% to $6.99 billion, largely due to a sharp drop in petroleum consumer goods (-35.2%). Merchandise exports reached $48.01 billion, up 8.1% year-over-year, as non-oil exports rose 9.8%, offsetting a 33.5% decline in oil exports. Non-oil exports to the US increased 7.9%, while those to the rest of the world surged 19.6%. Manufactured goods exports climbed 9.4% to $43.51 billion, though automotive exports fell 9.0% due to a 16.7% drop in US shipments. Agricultural and fishing exports totaled $1.85 billion, down 11.6%.