Mexico Posts Surprise Trade Deficit in February

Mexico’s trade balance swung to a $0.46 billion deficit in February 2026, reversing last year’s $1.65 billion surplus and defying analysts’ expectation of a $1.2 billion surplus. Imports soared 20.8% year-on-year to $57.31 billion, as 22.6% jump in purchases of non-oil goods more than offset a 1.4% decline in oil imports. In particular, increases were seen for intermediate goods (29.5%) and consumer goods (5.5%). Meanwhile, exports climbed 15.8% to $56.85 billion, buoyed by a 17.5% rise in non-oil shipments, led by mining products, which soared 107.6%, and manufactured goods, up 17.1%. On the other hand, agricultural exports fell 12.8%, while automotive shipments declined 3.4%, led by an 8.7% drop to the United States. Meanwhile, overseas sales of oil products plunged 24.2%. Overall, non-oil exports continued to perform well, rising 15.9% to the United States and 26.4% to other international markets.

Mexico posted a trade deficit of $6.48 billion in January 2026, a record high, widening from $5.21 billion a year earlier and well above forecasts of $2.20 billion. Merchandise imports totaled $54.49 billion, up 9.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by intermediate goods at $43.12 billion (14.2%), particularly strong growth in non-petroleum intermediates (16.5%). Capital goods imports fell 4.4% to $4.38 billion, while consumer goods imports declined 3.8% to $6.99 billion, largely due to a sharp drop in petroleum consumer goods (-35.2%). Merchandise exports reached $48.01 billion, up 8.1% year-over-year, as non-oil exports rose 9.8%, offsetting a 33.5% decline in oil exports. Non-oil exports to the US increased 7.9%, while those to the rest of the world surged 19.6%. Manufactured goods exports climbed 9.4% to $43.51 billion, though automotive exports fell 9.0% due to a 16.7% drop in US shipments. Agricultural and fishing exports totaled $1.85 billion, down 11.6%.

Mexico posted a $2.43 billion trade surplus in December 2025, up from $1.85 billion a year earlier but slightly below forecasts of $2.50 billion. Exports rose 17.2% year on year to $60.65 billion, driven by a 20.6% increase in manufactured goods shipments. In contrast, oil exports plunged 32.9%, while agricultural and fishing exports fell 12.7%. Merchandise imports totaled $58.22 billion, marking a 16.7% annual increase. Consumer goods imports surged 25.3%, intermediate goods rose 17.3%, and capital goods edged down 0.6%. For full-year 2025, Mexico recorded a $0.77 billion trade surplus, swinging from an $18.54 billion deficit in 2024.