Retail sales in Lithuania increased 6.6 percent year-on-year in July of 2019, accelerating from an upwardly revised 3.8 percent gain in the previous month. This was the biggest gain in retail sales since April, due to a rise in sales of non-food products (11.8% from 5.7% in June); automotive fuel (8.6% from 3.4%). Meanwhile, sales of food products continued to increase (0.7% from 2.3%), namely in non-specialised stores (0.8% vs 2.6%). Within non-food products, sales went up faster for via mail order houses or via internet (22.2% from 13.6%); dispensing chemist, medical & orthopaedic goods (19.0% from 9.8%); audio, video, hardware, furniture & lighting (8.5% from 2.2%) while those of information & communication equipment rebounded sharply (12.0% from -0.7%). On the other hand, sales of textiles clothing & footwear rose softer (8.1% from 13.6%). On a monthly basis, retail trade jumped 5.5 percent, reversing a downwardly revised 1.1 percent fall in June. Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania averaged 4.98 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in May of 2007 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania is expected to be 5.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania to stand at 4.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Lithuania Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.