Retail sales in Lithuania increased 6.6 percent year-on-year in September of 2018, easing from an upwardly revised 7.9 percent rise in the previous month. It was the lowest annual gain in retail trade since April. Sales slowed for food, beverages & tobacco (3.2 percent from 4.7 percent in August); non-food products (8.1 percent from 9.5 percent) and automotive fuel (10 percent from 11 percent). Within non-food products, sales rose at a softer pace via mail order or internet (21.2 percent from 35.4 percent) and for dispensing chemist, medical & orthopaedic goods (4.4 percent from 8.4 percent) while advanced faster for information & communication equipment (4.2 percent from 2.1 percent); textiles, clothing & footwear (7.8 percent from 7 percent) and audio, video, hardware, furniture & lighting (7.9 percent from 7 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade declined 8.8 percent, after an upwardly revised 4.1 percent gain in August. Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania averaged 4.92 percent from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in May of 2007 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania is expected to be 5.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania to stand at 5.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Lithuania Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.