India Holds Rates, Revises Down FY26/27 GDP Forecasts

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive meeting in June and maintained a neutral stance amid a weakening rupee. The decision was in line with market expectations, as the conflict in the Middle East threatened GDP growth and fueled inflationary pressures. On the economic outlook, the RBI lowered its GDP growth forecast for FY2026/27 to 6.6% from its earlier estimate of 6.9%. GDP is projected to grow by 6.6% in the first quarter of the fiscal year, followed by 6.3% in the second quarter and 6.5% and 6.8% in Q3 and Q4, respectively. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to average 5.1%, up from the earlier estimate of 4.6%, mainly driven by higher LPG, base metal, plastic, and rubber prices. Inflation is forecast at 4.2% in Q1, 5.1% in Q2, and 5.9% in both Q3 and Q4. Core inflation is projected at 4.7%. The central bank also kept the SDF rate at 5.0% and the MSF rate at 5.50%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its key repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second straight meeting and maintained a neutral stance during its first monetary policy decision of fiscal year 2026/27, amid a weakening rupee and rising bond yields. The decision was in line with market forecasts, as the Iran war threatened GDP growth and fueled inflationary pressures. On the economic outlook, the RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025/26 to 7.6%, up from its earlier estimate of 7.4%, while inflation is expected to remain below the central bank's target of 4%. Meanwhile, GDP growth for FY2026/27 is estimated at 6.9%, with growth for the first quarter of the fiscal year projected at 6.8%, while the second quarter has been revised down to 6.7% from 7%. Inflation for FY27 is projected at 4.6%, with 4% for Q1, 4.4% for Q2, 5.2% for Q3, and 4.7% for Q4. The RBI also maintained the SDF rate at 5.0% and the MSF rate at 5.50%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key repo rate at 5.25% during its February 2026 meeting, the first monetary policy decision of the year, after cutting it by 25 bps at the December meeting, in line with forecasts, amid confidence in a softer inflation outlook and improving growth prospects. India’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.33% in December 2025 but remained below the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%–6%, while GDP grew 8.2% in the September quarter. The decision comes after the Union Budget boosted government spending and US–India trade deals raised expectations of stronger economic growth. On the economic outlook, the RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025/26 to 7.4%, up from its earlier estimate of 7.3%. GDP growth for H1 of FY27 was also revised upward, with growth projected at 6.9% in Q1 and 7.0% in Q2. Meanwhile, inflation for FY2025/26 is projected at 2.1%. The RBI also kept the SDF rate at 5.0% and the MSF rate at 5.50%.