India Infrastructure Output Contracts

The infrastructure output in India fell by 0.4% annually in March of 2026 following the upwardly revised 2.8% increase in the previous month, reflecting the first period of contraction since October of the previous year and only the fourth monthly contraction since the start of 2021. The drop reflected an immediate impact on the energy shock from the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which triggered energy shortages in Asia and a surge in the prices of petrochemicals. Fertilizer production plunged by 24.6% as firms were unable to source regular levels of natural gas feedstock. Output was also lower for coal (-4%) and crude oil (-5.7%). In turn, steel (2.2%) and cement (4%) continued to expand on the strong momentum for construction inputs.

The infrastructure output in India rose by 2.3% annually in February of 2026, slowing from the upwardly revised 4.7% increase from the previous month, but still marking a fourth straight period of growth. Growth in infrastructure continued to be carried by raw materials used for construction, with growth rates holding for steel (7.2% vs 11.5% in January) and cement (9.3% vs 11.3%). Also, output ticked higher for fertilizers (3.4% vs 3.7%), coal (2.3% vs 3.1%), and electricity (0.5% vs 5.2%). On the other hand, petrol and gas commodity output fell, maintaining the weakness for the sector as sourcing raw materials from Russia became scrutinized following sanctions from the US. Output fell for crude oil (-5.2% vs -5.8%), natural gas (-5% vs -5%), and refinery products (-1% vs unchanged).

The infrastructure output in India expanded by 4.0% from the previous year in January of 2026, slowing from the upwardly revised, 4.7% to mark a third straight period of increase. Growth in infrastructure continued to be carried by raw materials used for construction, with higher growth rates holding for steel (9.9% vs 10.1%) and cement (10.7% vs 13.7%). In the meantime, expansions were also slower for electricity 3.8% vs 6.3%), fertilizers (3.7% vs 4.1%), and coal (3.1% vs 3.6%). On the other hand, production fell for natural gas (-5% vs -4.4%), crude oil (-5.8% vs -5.6%), and stalled for refined products (vs -1%), maintaining the weakness for the sector as sourcing raw materials from Russia became scrutinized following sanctions from the US.