Wheat Hits 18-week Low

Wheat decreased to 589.25 USd/Bu, the lowest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat lost 12.08%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.32%.

Wheat fell below $6.00 a bushel, reaching their lowest level since early July, as optimism over renewed peace efforts in the Black Sea region reduced the geopolitical risk premium. US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia are scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi, with technical teams from both countries and the US expected to participate. US President Donald Trump also suggested that the conflict could end soon following discussions with a Kremlin envoy, raising hopes for an agreement that could eventually restore grain shipments from the region, a major global agricultural supplier. However, the prospect of peace adds to existing downward pressure from strong global supply. Wheat prices have declined steadily since reaching a 3-1/2-year high of $7.67 on August 28, as production is expected to reach its second-highest level on record, supported by larger harvests in Australia and Argentina.

Wheat rose to $6 per bushel, recovering from a near four-month low hit on November 4, as a tight Russian export outlook heightened concerns over global supplies. IKAR slashed its 2026–27 wheat export forecast from 42 million to 39.5 million metric tons, according to Interfax. Total grain export estimates were similarly downgraded to 49.5 million tons, from 52.8 million. Ongoing logistical disruptions across key Black Sea export corridors have hampered shipments, forcing Russian exporters to increasingly rely on rail networks and Baltic ports to maintain trade flows. However, these alternative routes are nearing capacity, leaving limited room to offset further disruptions. Meanwhile, traders are watching next week's trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington for signs of progress toward ending the conflict, with any breakthrough potentially improving the outlook for global grain trade.