Wheat Jumps as Black Sea Supply Risks Mount

Wheat prices surged more than 3% to above $6.50 per bushel on Wednesday, moving closer to the two-year high of $7.08 reached on July 22, as concerns over Black Sea supply disruptions intensified. Prices jumped after reports that major Ukrainian drone attacks had halted operations at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia’s leading Black Sea wheat export port. The attacks have raised fresh concerns over shipments during the peak export season for both Russia and Ukraine, with the two countries increasingly targeting each other’s vessels and logistics infrastructure. Russia’s wheat exports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly a decade in August, while consultancy IKAR has cut its 2026/27 export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes. Ukraine has also lowered its grain export outlook by up to 12%. However, weak international demand, lower Russian prices and alternative export routes could limit the impact on global supplies.

Wheat prices fluctuated around $6.40 per bushel, remaining more than 10% below the two-year high of $7.08 on July 22, as weaker Russian prices, subdued international demand and alternative export routes eased concerns over Black Sea disruptions. Hopes for progress in negotiations to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also improved broader market sentiment, after Pakistan said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” to reduce tensions. However, risks to grain exports remain as Ukraine and Russia continue to target each other’s shipping routes. Ukraine has lowered its 2026/27 grain export forecast by up to 12% from its previous estimate, while Russia’s wheat export outlook has also been reduced. Consultancy IKAR cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.5 million tonnes, while Sovecon expects August shipments to reach their lowest level in a decade. Traders now await the US government’s latest crop forecasts on Wednesday.

Wheat prices rose to around $6.50 per bushel, remaining above a four-week low touched on August 6, as growing concerns over tightening global supplies lent support to prices. Turkey temporarily suspended Black Sea transit operations for its vessels amid escalating security concerns tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The development came after Ukraine warned that its agricultural exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could fall by more than half from earlier projections due to persistent Russian strikes on critical infrastructure and export routes. Elsewhere, severe heatwaves across the US, Canada, and Europe have heightened concerns over crop yields and quality. In France, extreme temperatures are expected to curb wheat production, while wheat acreage in Canada has declined from a year earlier. Meanwhile, favorable rainfall across Australia's major wheat-growing regions improved yield expectations, leading Rabobank and Bendigo Bank Agribusiness to raise their production outlooks.