Wheat Futures Rise as Supply Concerns Persist

Wheat prices rose to around $6.40 per bushel, remaining above a four-week low reached on August 6, as concerns over tightening global supplies outweighed improved crop prospects in Australia. Grain exports from the Black Sea region have been disrupted by intensified attacks on port infrastructure linked to the Russia–Ukraine war, while severe heatwaves across the US, Canada, and Europe have heightened concerns over crop yields and quality. In France, extreme temperatures are expected to reduce wheat production, while Canadian wheat acreage has declined from a year earlier. Meanwhile, timely rainfall across key growing regions in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria has boosted yield expectations, prompting Rabobank to raise its production forecast to as much as 30 million tons. Bendigo Bank Agribusiness has also upgraded its outlook to around 30 million tons, with output potentially reaching 33 million tons.

Wheat decreased to 631.00 USd/Bu, the lowest since July 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat gained 3.6%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 21.79%.

Wheat prices fell to around $6.30 per bushel in early August, hitting their lowest level since July 9, as falling oil prices weighed on broader agricultural markets. Oil prices, which often influence agricultural commodities such as the wheat, dropped sharply amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement after Qatar said mediation efforts between the two sides had entered an advanced stage. Adding to the bearish sentiment, improving US crop conditions reinforced expectations of ample wheat supplies, with USDA data showing the spring wheat crop’s good-to-excellent rating rising to 55% from 53% a week earlier. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s agriculture minister said alternative export routes would remain constrained until at least the end of August, with capacity limited to about half of typical Black Sea shipment volumes. While the restrictions kept supply risks in focus, continued exports helped ease concerns over a major disruption.