Wheat Retreats From 8-Week Highs

Wheat futures rose past $5.35 per bushel rebounding toward eight week highs last seen January 29th amid supply risks and firm demand signals. Renewed bouts of severe cold across the US Plains and parts of southern Russia revived concerns over winterkill for already stressed crops, tightening supply expectations after recent dryness limited protective snow cover in key regions. In the Black Sea, weather disruptions and lingering logistical frictions continued to constrain export flows, while uncertainty around Russia’s upcoming export quota reinforced expectations that global availability could tighten later in the marketing year. On the demand side, US export sales remained steady as buyers sought to diversify away from Black Sea origins amid rising delivery risk, lending support to nearby prices. Although global inventories remain elevated, the rebound reflects a repricing of downside risk to production and exportable supply.

Wheat futures traded below $5.3 per bushel, retreating from eight-week highs seen January 29th as early weather-driven gains ran into a renewed supply overhang and less supportive macro conditions. Initial support from freezing temperatures across the US Plains and parts of the Black Sea faded as forecasts moderated and no widespread crop damage was confirmed, reducing near-term supply risk. At the same time, a rebound in the US dollar from late-January lows undermined export competitiveness just as global availability remains ample, with high US and world inventories limiting the scope for sustained price gains. Elevated stocks and large volumes of unpriced wheat in commercial storage have also increased the likelihood of selling on rallies, capping upside.

Wheat futures rose past $5.4 per bushel, the highest in eight weeks, as freezing weather in the US and Russia raised concerns over potential crop damage. Record-low temperatures across the central and eastern US supported prices, while abnormal cold in Russia could reduce output. A weaker US dollar, hovering near a four-year low after President Trump said he was unconcerned about its decline, boosted expectations for US exports by making supplies more competitive against cheaper Brazilian soybeans and Russian wheat. Trump’s comments on expanding E15 ethanol sales also lifted sentiment, raising hopes for higher corn-based demand, though uncertainty remains over when year-round sales might be allowed and how much additional demand would materialize.