UK Natural Gas Prices Rise to 4-Week High

UK natural gas prices rose to around 203 pence per therm on Monday, a four-week high, as increased tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating regional tensions heightened concerns over the security of LNG supplies. The strait handles around 20% of global LNG trade before the war. Despite a steady rise in European gas inventories in recent weeks, storage facilities are around 73% full, still below year-ago levels. However, this recovery could be threatened by forecasts of cooler autumn temperatures, which may lead to an earlier start to the heating season and increase gas consumption. Last week, European gas network operators said the system was flexible enough to meet winter demand but warned that limited supplies could push storage below 30% by winter’s end, increasing vulnerability to late-season cold snaps. Meanwhile, growing renewable output in the UK has reduced dependence on gas-fired electricity, but the country remains exposed to fuel price swings.

UK natural gas prices fell to 193 pence per therm, easing from an over three-week high after President Trump ruled out attacks on Iran before the US midterm elections, alleviating fears of an escalation to the conflict. However, continued attacks on Gulf shipping raised fresh concerns over transit safety. Meanwhile, cooler weather forecasts for Northwestern Europe could lift heating demand. While Europe's gas inventories have risen steadily in recent weeks, storage facilities are around 73% full, still below year-ago levels. The region’s gas network operators said the system is flexible enough to meet winter demand but warned that limited LNG supplies could push storage below 30% by winter’s end, increasing vulnerability to late-season cold snaps. In Britain, strong wind generation in September reduced reliance on gas-fired power, but the country remains exposed to broader price pressures. Despite Friday’s decline, UK gas prices rose over 2% this week, marking a second weekly gain.

UK natural gas prices climbed above 198 pence per therm, their highest level in more than three weeks, as continued tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns. Iran has sharply increased attacks on commercial and energy vessels transiting the waterway, underscoring persistent shipping risks and threatening to disrupt the broader recovery in fuel deliveries. Adding to the upward pressure, forecasts point to cooler weather across Northwestern Europe, which could boost heating demand and increase gas consumption. This weather-driven support comes despite steady additions to European gas storage reserves, with facilities now around 73% full, although inventories remain below levels seen at the same point last year. Meanwhile, the surge in Britain’s wind generation in September has reduced its reliance on gas-fired power generation, but this was not enough to insulate the country from the broader price pressures stemming from ongoing disruptions to Gulf supply.