UK Gas Prices Jump as Middle East War Escalates

UK natural gas prices jumped as high as 144.8 pence per therm to a four-month high earlier on Monday before paring gains to around 140.6, amid mounting fears of deeper supply disruptions as hostilities between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend. The US Central Command said on Sunday that it had carried out a fresh round of strikes against Iran for the ninth consecutive night, while Kuwait and Bahrain reported Iranian attacks. The conflict has widened beyond military targets to include bridges, utility infrastructure, and port facilities, increasing the risk of a return to full-scale war. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has largely come to a halt, with the US enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and Tehran targeting vessels it says are violating its regulations. These supply risks, coupled with stronger demand for power generation, are making it more difficult for Europe to refill its vast storage facilities before winter.

UK natural gas prices rose toward 136 pence a therm on Friday, bringing weekly gains to nearly 16%, amid growing threats to Persian Gulf supplies as US-Iran attacks intensified. The US launched fresh strikes on Iran on Thursday, following previous attacks that struck an unladen oil tanker bound for Iran ports after the reimposition of a blockade. Tehran has countered with attacks targeting US military bases in neighboring countries and has reportedly called Yemen’s Houthi rebel group to shut the Red Sea export route if Washington targets Iranian power infrastructure. UK gas prices climbed to their highest in over three months and have surged over 30% in July so far, erasing an over 18% decline in Q2, as supply disruptions and strong power generation demand constrain Europe’s ability to rebuild inventories before winter. Supply concerns were exacerbated after Qatar, the Middle East's largest LNG exporter, halted plans to boost output after one of its tankers was attacked near Hormuz.

UK natural gas prices hovered around 130.6 pence per therm on Thursday, remaining at a more than three-month high, as continued US attacks on Iran heightened concerns over LNG flows from the region. Following the reimposition of its naval blockade, the US launched another round of strikes targeting Iran’s coastal defenses and missile sites, and said it had fired on an empty oil tanker en route to an Iranian port. Tehran responded by warning that it could disrupt additional regional energy exports, describing the conflict as an “existential war” with the US. The latest escalation comes at a particularly sensitive time for Europe, which is in the process of refilling its gas storage facilities ahead of winter. Any prolonged disruption to LNG exports from the region could tighten global supplies, potentially forcing European buyers into more intense and costly competition with Asian importers for available cargoes.